Wyoming
Meanwhile, back at the ranch: House Edition
President Bush’s dismal poll numbers, the flagging economy, beset with rising energy prices in the midst of a housing crisis, and the huge number of Americans who say the country is on the wrong track, all mean that Democrats could expand on their 2006 gains in Congress. Here are some House districts in the West where the outcome is not a forgone conclusion:
AK-AL
AZ-1
AZ-3
AZ-5
AZ-8
CA-4
CA-11
CA-50
CO-4
ID-1
NM-1
NM2
NV-2
NV-3
OR-5
WA-8
WY-AL
My favorite contests are CA-4 and WY-AL where Charlie Brown and Gary Trauner, respectively, hope to swing their districts into the Democratic column. Such a swing would be a fitting end to the Bush presidency, whose actions were eerily predicted by a satirical piece seven years ago.
Leo Brown | June 17, 2008 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
Dave Freudenthal Endorses Barack Obama
Wyoming’s popular Governor Dave Freudenthal is the second Western governor to endorse Senator Obama in recent weeks. While not saying anything negative about Senator Clinton, he views Senator Obama as "incredibly smart" and someone who gives honest answers instead of scripted responses.
Senator Obama is the Democratic candidate with the openness, honesty and skill to end this vicious cycle of business as usual.
Openness and honesty, skill and intelligence, and a no nonsense approach to government are some of the values we like to see at here at Western Democrat.
Leo Brown | April 5, 2008 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
Three Elections
Wyoming was part of Barack’s Rocky Mountain firewall. And now Mississippi voted for Barack as well. Very different states, same result. And it is really hard to think of these two states as latte-sipping boutique states.
However, I would like to call your attention to a third recent election, this one in Illinois.
I live in California, in the land of earthquakes, but I was born in Illinois and lived in the Chicago suburbs for about 25 years. So when Denny Hastert’s old congressional seat flipped from R to D, I took notice. This is 6.0 on the Richter Scale. A strong one. This is also a validation of Barack’s strategy and message.
Sen. Barack Obama could bring out a huge turnout if he's the Democratic presidential nominee. Others have noted this as well.
Obama's effect on the Foster race is emblematic of why Democratic Super Delegates are beginning to break for Obama. Not only is Obama the most electable Democratic candidate for President this fall, he's also the candidate that will help elect more Democrats to the House and Senate. And the effect the presidential candidate has on House and Senate races - as well as races for State Legislature - will be a big factor in determining who Super Delegates support. If you don't believe me, pull aside virtually any Member of Congress who represents a tough swing district, and ask privately who he or she wants to head the ticket. The verdict is virtually unanimous: they all believe that Obama's nomination will be far more helpful to their own candidacies than Hillary Clinton's. The same goes for candidates trying to take Republican seats. You hear four reasons for this assessment: 1). They believe that Obama will turn out large numbers of new Democratic voters that simply won't show up if Hillary is the candidate. This is doubly true when districts have sizeable minority populations. But it is true of young people across the board. 2). They believe that Obama will appeal to independents and some Republicans -- and create an environment more favorable to their own candidacies among those voters. 3). They think Obama will be much more helpful at raising money for their own races than Clinton. 4). Most importantly, many think Clinton's presence on the ticket will galvanize the right wing base. They simply don't want to run on a ticket headed by Hillary Clinton, and many say they would not campaign with her in their districts.We’ve noted previously that Clinton would be a drag on Western Democrats.
One key advisor to a prominent Democratic congressional candidate, who asked not be to identified discussing tensions within the party, went even further. "It's a disaster for Western Democrats," he said. "It keeps me up at night."
Leo Brown | March 11, 2008 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
Every State Counts, Every Voter Counts
If you were tired of a few voters in a handful of states determining the nominee, this is your year. If you are told only the big states count, don’t believe it. Every state counts, and every voter counts. In the West the remaining contests are
Wyoming March 8 (caucus)
Oregon May 20 (primary)
Montana June 3 (primary)
Montana and South Dakota (also on June 3 and partly in the West) will be the last contests before the convention, unless a couple of states that jumped the gun earlier in the year have a “do over.”
Democracy may be messy, but I prefer it to the alternatives.
Leo Brown | March 6, 2008 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
RIP: Senator Craig Thomas, (R-Wyoming)
Senator Craig Thomas has died. From the AP:
Wyoming Sen. Craig Thomas, a three-term conservative Republican who stayed clear of the Washington limelight and political disputes, died Monday. He was 74. The senator's family issued a statement saying that he died at the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Md., where he had been receiving chemotherapy for acute myeloid leukemia.
Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) will appoint a successor, though it will be a Republican. The seat will open, however, for an election in 2008 -- even though Thomas was re-elected in 2006.
From the Wyoming News:
Gov. Dave Freudenthal, a Democrat, will appoint a successor from one of three finalists chosen by the state Republican party. Peggy Nighswonger, Wyoming's elections director, said the governor has five days to appoint one of the party's three nominees once he receives the names. That person will serve until the next general election in 2008.
Kari Chisholm | June 5, 2007 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
2008 and House Candidates in the West
Swing State Project recently listed ten Democratic House Candidates who ran close, but unsuccessful, races in 2006, and should run again. These are good candidates who ran in tough districts and now have some name recognition for a second attempt. Of particular note is that half of these are in the West:
Charlie Brown CA-4
Larry Grant ID-1
Tessa Hafen NV-3
Darcy Burner WA-8
Gary Truaner WY-AL
The New York Times and CQ Politics recently reported a list of fifteen close 2006 House races. Again five, though not the same five, are in the West.
CO-4
NV-3
NM-1
WA-8
WY-AL
Combining the two lists already gives us seven House seats to watch in the West in 2008. Two of the seven are in blue states (CA, WA). Two are in the red states (ID, WY). Three are in red states considered to be trending purple (CO, NV, NM).
The focus in 2008 will be on the top of the ticket, but we are now seeing how important control of the House is. Continuing or expanding Democratic control of the House in 2008 may well depend on having a Presidential ticket that can run well in the West.
Leo Brown | January 6, 2007 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
The New West Project
This is wonderful:
The New West Project, headquartered in Denver, will conduct research and develop strategies to secure and exploit recent Democratic gains in the Western states, party sources said.At least four Western governors - Janet Napolitano of Arizona, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Brian Schweitzer of Montana and Bill Ritter, Colorado's governor-elect - are expected to lead the group's advisory council, the sources said. Incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Sen. Ken Salazar of Colorado and other members of Congress will provide "strategic guidance."
Reid confirmed the creation of the new organization, which he said would "build upon the leadership of people such as governors Napolitano, Richardson and Schweitzer" and "work to focus attention on the West."
This is a high level group. Consider the Western Strategy in play, my friends. It is wonderful to see this sort of institutional arrangement that will only benefit our local, state and national candidates long term. It looks like part think tank, part strategy firm, part communications development - all aspects that will be welcome by the plethora of candidates that will be running these next few cycles to take advantage of our our new promise out here in the west.
The best part of the article? The quote from an unnamed "Western Democrat":
As an example of what the new organization may do, the Western Democrat said that political professionals would analyze such questions as "the difference between first- and second-generation Hispanic voters, ... what motivates them and how we communicate with them," as well as "why a recent transplant from California, who has voted Republican all her life, is now voting for Democrats."
Good question, "Western Democrat" - it just leaves me amazed to see our namesake invoked so strikingly in an article. Methinks the author of the article, John Aloysius Farrell , might just be an reader of our humble site. If so, thanks for the article John - we'll be watching for you in the future.
It's great to have a new project designed for this express purpose and examining the multitude of new questions that are arising from the new political climate in the West. Now, if any of those people involved in the project are paying attention it would behoove them greatly to include netroots and blog outreach as an element of the project. You see, since major political focus has been absent from the West for awhile the netroots and blogosphere have been proliferating and recruiting top candidates all over the place. It would be an essential element of any plan that you should put together.
I'm excited.
Here's the The New West Project!
Landon Mascareñaz | December 6, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
Post-Election Statehouse Roundup
To quote Buffalo Springfield, "there's something happening here". Post-election, Western Democrats have made great gains in the states, building strong majorities in the legislatures and taking or retaining several governorships. Here's a look at the numbers, courtesy of NCSL.
Senate 12-18 Republican majority
House 21-39 Republican majorityPost-Election
Senate 12-18 Republican majority
House 28-32 Republican majorityPickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +7 seats
Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was overwhelmingly re-elected.
Pre-election
Senate 25-15 Democratic majority
Assembly 47-32-1 (Senate 25-15 Democratic majority
Assembly 48-32 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
Assembly - +1 seat
Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 18-17 Democratic majority
House 35-30 Democratic majority
Post-Election
Senate 20-15 Democratic majority
House 39-26 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – +2 seat
House - +4 seats
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter was elected Governor.
Pre-Election
House 13-57 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 7-28 Republican majority
House 19-51 Republican majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +6 seats
Republican gubernatorial candidate C.L. “Butch” Otter was elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 27-23 Democratic majority
House 50-50
Post-Election
Senate 26-24 Democratic majority
House 50-49-1 (
Pickups
Senate – -1 Seat
House – stays the same
Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer is up for re-election in 2008.
Pre-Election
House 26-16 Democratic majority
Post-Election
House 27-15 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – +1 seat
House - +1 seat
Pre-Election
Senate 24-18 Democratic majorityHouse 42-28-2(
Post-Election
Senate 24-18 Democratic majority
House 42-28 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House – stays the same
Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was overwhelmingly re-elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 17-11-2(
House 27-33 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 17-11-2(
House 31-29 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +4 seats
Pre-Election
House 19-56 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 8-21 Republican majority
House 19-56 Republican majority
Senate – stays the same
House – stays the same
Republican Governor Jon Huntsman is up for re-election in 2008.
Pre-Election
Senate 26-23 Democratic majority
House 56-42 Democratic majority
Post-Election
Senate 32-17 Democratic majority (not since 1965)
House 63-35 Democratic majority
Senate – +6 seats
House - +7 seats
Pre-Election
Senate 7-23 Republican majority
House 14-46 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 7-23 Republican majority
House 17-43 Republican majority
Senate – stays the same
House - +3 seats
Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal was overwhelmingly re-elected.
kencamp | November 22, 2006 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
Room to Grow in the West
Western Democrats did well in 2006. Here is a link to some helpful maps. Particularly noteworthy were pickups in Montana for the U.S. Senate and the Colorado for governorship, plus four pick-ups in the House of Representatives. And we won the office of Secretary of State in the swing states of New Mexico and Nevada. (Think Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 for the importance of this). But we could have done better, and in 2008 we can. For the Senate in 2008 think Colorado and New Mexico. There is still room to grow in the West.
But returning to 2006, Senate pickups in Arizona and Nevada were possible. Governor’s mansion pickups were possible in Alaska, Nevada and Idaho. Additional House pickups were possible in California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington, and Wyoming. And we didn’t win the election for Secretary of State in Colorado. These races were close enough to be considered competitive. Several of the competitive House districts in 2006 could be just as competitive in 2008.
So while we are still basking in the warm glow of victory, let us ask ourselves, what could we do better? Any campaign can be critiqued, but I think the biggest factor is that we were outspent. Jack Carter was outspent four to one in Nevada. The GOP and the Club for Growth poured a ton of money into ID-1. The national GOP was spending much more in CA-4 than the DCCC was. And so it went in many districts. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton spent $30 million defeating token opposition in New York. Now I understand that each candidate can raise his or her own funds, and the national committees carefully decide where to spend scarce resources, but more seed money in planting season and more money at harvest time would go a long way in the West. Something to think about for 2008.
Leo Brown | November 21, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
Tester leading...
Of course, the big story in the West is that Jon Tester is leading Conrad Burns. As of 9:30 Mountain Time, he's up 49% to 48% leading by less than 2000 votes, out of nearly 400,000 cast.
In the US House, Democrats won Arizona-5, Arizona-8, California-11 (goodbye Pombo!), and Colorado 7 (Perlmutter). It's still too close to call in California-4 (Brown/Doolittle), New Mexico-1 (Madrid/Wilson), Washington-8 (Burner/Reichert), and Wyoming at-large (Trauner/Cubin). DailyKos has a Western election results tracker.
In the governor's races, Democrats won in Colorado and Oregon - but lost in Alaska, Idaho, and Nevada.
Kari Chisholm | November 8, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
