Washington
Meanwhile back at the ranch: Gubernatorial Edition
Gubernatorial is a wonderful word meaning pertaining to governors. Governors do a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to good government, though they generally get less press these days than senators and, of course, presidents, unless they are very good or very bad.
While the Senate contests in the West this year offer excitement and good pickup opportunities, the gubernatorial elections present a much more settled picture, with one notable exception.
Nationally 28 Democrats and 22 Republicans hold governorships. In the West the totals are seven for the Democrats (AZ, CO, MT, NM, OR, WA, WY) and six for the GOP. Nationally, there will be eleven gubernatorial contests on November 4, 2008. Six of those seats are currently held by Democrats and five by Republicans. Three of those eleven contests are in the West, namely in Montana (D), Utah (R), and Washington (D).
In Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, a star among Western Democrats, is looking strong. When Time magazine did a lengthy piece on The Democrats’ New Western Stars (Jan. 19, 2007), it was Governor Schweitzer’s photo they led with. Click here to watch Governor Schweitzer explain how elections are won in Montana.
In Utah, the GOP has held the governorship for 24 years, and Republican Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. will be hard to beat.
In Washington, however, the contest promises to be exciting, because Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire won a squeaker in 2004, complete with recounts and a court case.
Washington is a fairly Blue State. Though potentially a swing state, it has put its electoral votes in the D column in the last five presidential contests and is represented in the Senate by two Democratic Senators. Six of the nine House members from Washington are Democrats. In addition to the governorship, both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by Democrats. All politics is local, as the saying goes, but national trends--war, recession and an unpopular Republican in the White House--will be important, too. Click here for Governor Gregoire’s own website.
Leo Brown | April 27, 2008 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
Best in the West
From the beginning of Western Democrat, it was recognized that the West offered the Democratic Party a way out of a recurring pattern of electoral defeat.
The primary season reaches another critical junction this Tuesday. Democrats looking to win in November would do well to visit 270toWin.com and look at the state polls. Poll numbers can be fickle things, but the overall impression is clear: Barack Obama would run much better in the West than Hillary Clinton. The margin is, in fact, the difference between victory and defeat in November.
Consider six states in the West. The first three were won by Kerry, and are must wins in 2008. The second three were lost my Kerry, but would have put him in the White House had he won all three.
The first three are California, Oregon, and Washington. According to recent state polls, Obama would win California by 27%, Oregon by 1% and Washington by 17%. Hillary would win California by 19%, lose Oregon by 3%, and tie in Washington.
The second three are Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Obama would will all three by 7%, tie to 15% (two polls), and 12%, respectively. Hillary would lose Colorado by 14% and lose in Nevada by 9% (no recent poll from this source for New Mexico).
Leo Brown | March 2, 2008 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
The land turned upside down in Washington lands commissioner race
Spokompton has been doing some great stuff on the upcoming lands commissioner race in Washington State next year and they point out the main difference between the Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark and the incumbent Doug Sutherland.
Goldmark is a rancher from the eastern, rural side of the state. Sutherland is a career politician and government tactician from the urban Puget Sound.
More from Spokompton on Sutherland:
Sutherland served on the Tacoma city council in 1980-81, before being elected Mayor of Tacoma. He held that post until the end of 1989, when he took the job of City Manager in the newly incorporated SeaTac. He was there until 1992, when he took over as Pierce County Executive. That post he held through the end of 2000, when he began his first term as Commissioner of Public Lands. In his first campaign he defeated DemocratJennifer Belcher(actually it was former Gov. Mike Lowry, eoc), after successfully painting her as a stereotypical far-left liberal. I recall that election season in Eastern Washington for the great deal of talk about endangered owls and how little they mattered to Washingtonians. In 2004, Sutherland fended off Democrat Mike Cooper in a much lower-profile race, likely due to the national political conflagration that was President Bush’s Reelection.
So, how does it work out that a government establishment Republican from the urban Puget Sound runs a race against an insurgent Democratic rancher from the rural east? What kind of themes does Sutherland pick up? Stay the course?
Prairie populist Goldmark is giving us a look at what his themes may end up being:
I want to return the office to the people of Washington. I will treat our public lands-and the people who use them-with respect. It is vital that we treat our public lands as a long-term resource, to keep Washington's forests and fields healthy.
Emmett O'Connell | July 19, 2007 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
2008 and House Candidates in the West
Swing State Project recently listed ten Democratic House Candidates who ran close, but unsuccessful, races in 2006, and should run again. These are good candidates who ran in tough districts and now have some name recognition for a second attempt. Of particular note is that half of these are in the West:
Charlie Brown CA-4
Larry Grant ID-1
Tessa Hafen NV-3
Darcy Burner WA-8
Gary Truaner WY-AL
The New York Times and CQ Politics recently reported a list of fifteen close 2006 House races. Again five, though not the same five, are in the West.
CO-4
NV-3
NM-1
WA-8
WY-AL
Combining the two lists already gives us seven House seats to watch in the West in 2008. Two of the seven are in blue states (CA, WA). Two are in the red states (ID, WY). Three are in red states considered to be trending purple (CO, NV, NM).
The focus in 2008 will be on the top of the ticket, but we are now seeing how important control of the House is. Continuing or expanding Democratic control of the House in 2008 may well depend on having a Presidential ticket that can run well in the West.
Leo Brown | January 6, 2007 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
Another Western Democrat Elected to a Leadership Position
The Democratic Party is clearly looking west for leadership in the 110th Congress and not hesitating to name women to leadership posts either.
In addition to Harry Reid and Patty Murray, important Senate leadership positions are held by two other Western Democrats. Senator Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico is Committee Outreach Chairman, and Senator Barbara Boxer is Chief Deputy Whip.
Senators Murray and Boxer join Speaker of the House-elect Nancy Pelosi as leading women in the Congress from the West Coast. Such ascendancy has a long tradition in the West. Before 1917, the only states in the Union that granted the vote to women were in the West. The first woman elected to Congress was Jeannette Rankin of Montana.
Hat tip to Ridenbaugh Press, a very fine blog covering the Northwest.
Here is a link to all the leaders in the 110th Congress.
Leo Brown | November 25, 2006 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
Post-Election Statehouse Roundup
To quote Buffalo Springfield, "there's something happening here". Post-election, Western Democrats have made great gains in the states, building strong majorities in the legislatures and taking or retaining several governorships. Here's a look at the numbers, courtesy of NCSL.
Senate 12-18 Republican majority
House 21-39 Republican majorityPost-Election
Senate 12-18 Republican majority
House 28-32 Republican majorityPickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +7 seats
Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was overwhelmingly re-elected.
Pre-election
Senate 25-15 Democratic majority
Assembly 47-32-1 (Senate 25-15 Democratic majority
Assembly 48-32 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
Assembly - +1 seat
Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 18-17 Democratic majority
House 35-30 Democratic majority
Post-Election
Senate 20-15 Democratic majority
House 39-26 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – +2 seat
House - +4 seats
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter was elected Governor.
Pre-Election
House 13-57 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 7-28 Republican majority
House 19-51 Republican majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +6 seats
Republican gubernatorial candidate C.L. “Butch” Otter was elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 27-23 Democratic majority
House 50-50
Post-Election
Senate 26-24 Democratic majority
House 50-49-1 (
Pickups
Senate – -1 Seat
House – stays the same
Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer is up for re-election in 2008.
Pre-Election
House 26-16 Democratic majority
Post-Election
House 27-15 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – +1 seat
House - +1 seat
Pre-Election
Senate 24-18 Democratic majorityHouse 42-28-2(
Post-Election
Senate 24-18 Democratic majority
House 42-28 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House – stays the same
Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was overwhelmingly re-elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 17-11-2(
House 27-33 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 17-11-2(
House 31-29 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +4 seats
Pre-Election
House 19-56 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 8-21 Republican majority
House 19-56 Republican majority
Senate – stays the same
House – stays the same
Republican Governor Jon Huntsman is up for re-election in 2008.
Pre-Election
Senate 26-23 Democratic majority
House 56-42 Democratic majority
Post-Election
Senate 32-17 Democratic majority (not since 1965)
House 63-35 Democratic majority
Senate – +6 seats
House - +7 seats
Pre-Election
Senate 7-23 Republican majority
House 14-46 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 7-23 Republican majority
House 17-43 Republican majority
Senate – stays the same
House - +3 seats
Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal was overwhelmingly re-elected.
kencamp | November 22, 2006 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
Room to Grow in the West
Western Democrats did well in 2006. Here is a link to some helpful maps. Particularly noteworthy were pickups in Montana for the U.S. Senate and the Colorado for governorship, plus four pick-ups in the House of Representatives. And we won the office of Secretary of State in the swing states of New Mexico and Nevada. (Think Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 for the importance of this). But we could have done better, and in 2008 we can. For the Senate in 2008 think Colorado and New Mexico. There is still room to grow in the West.
But returning to 2006, Senate pickups in Arizona and Nevada were possible. Governor’s mansion pickups were possible in Alaska, Nevada and Idaho. Additional House pickups were possible in California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington, and Wyoming. And we didn’t win the election for Secretary of State in Colorado. These races were close enough to be considered competitive. Several of the competitive House districts in 2006 could be just as competitive in 2008.
So while we are still basking in the warm glow of victory, let us ask ourselves, what could we do better? Any campaign can be critiqued, but I think the biggest factor is that we were outspent. Jack Carter was outspent four to one in Nevada. The GOP and the Club for Growth poured a ton of money into ID-1. The national GOP was spending much more in CA-4 than the DCCC was. And so it went in many districts. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton spent $30 million defeating token opposition in New York. Now I understand that each candidate can raise his or her own funds, and the national committees carefully decide where to spend scarce resources, but more seed money in planting season and more money at harvest time would go a long way in the West. Something to think about for 2008.
Leo Brown | November 21, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
Goldmark should get back on the horse
Getting back on the horse shouldn't be hard for a horseman from the Okanogan. Peter Goldmark lost, but if he runs again in two year, I think he'll win.
Goldmark did better in every single county, rural or otherwise, across the WA-5 than 2004's sacrificial lamb, Don Barbieri (2004 and 2006 results). The only county where he didn't markedly improve the Democratic margin was Spokane County, where one would assume a Democrat would poll the strongest. He proved a Democrat can be competitive in rural eastern Washington, and by improving margins in the more urban 5th, he can win.
This year's finish by Goldmark was actually the best result for a Democrat in the 5th since Tom Foley was picked off by George Nethercutt in 1994.
So, what can Goldmark do to win in a couple of years?
Keep on running. Its only just over a year until the campaign actually begins again, Goldmark should use the next year to raise his profile among Democrats where they actually are in the district, Spokane, Pullman and Walla Walla. Be seen in those meetings, go to JJ Dinners and bid on crappy auction items.
Use the Democratic majority in Washington (state and DC) to his advantage. One of Goldmark's chief Democratic sponsors, Rep. Norm Dicks, will be the chair of interior appropriations in the next Congress. Washington also has a Democratic governor and large Democratic majorities in the state legislator. Use those.
Its not totally unheard of for Washington governors to go overseas on trade missions to promote Washington goods. Most of those goods come from eastern Washington, and who better to send than an Okanogan rancher?
One of McMorris's strengths the past couple of years was that she was in the majority, and that she could "deliver" for the 5th. She won't be this time around, and she'll suffer through two years as a bank bencher in the minority party. The Washington delegation can use Goldmark as "their man in the 5th," sort of how Sen. Ted Stevens used senatorial candidate Mike McGavick when he needed to give someone credit for keeping oil tankers out of Puget Sound.
I could also imagine Goldmark traveling to the other Washington to lobby transportation appropriations chair Sen. Patty Murray for some new roads and Dicks for some salmon recovery money.
Keep the website up and use it. If the 2004 Democratic primary was the meetup election, the 2006 general was the Youtube election. What you do on the internet is becoming increasingly important. And, its a cheap way to keep your name out there between elections.
What Goldmark does with his web presence now, how consistent he is with connecting with his supporters, will matter a lot in two years. McMorris is still the elected official, so she'll get most of the free media from local tv and print, but Goldmark can dominate her on the internet. So blog, vlog and podcast.
Goldmark also got a lot of support from the Washington state blogosphere, by keeping his presence up and current will only boost that support that much more.
Emmett O'Connell | November 10, 2006 | Comment on This Post (6 so far) |
Tester leading...
Of course, the big story in the West is that Jon Tester is leading Conrad Burns. As of 9:30 Mountain Time, he's up 49% to 48% leading by less than 2000 votes, out of nearly 400,000 cast.
In the US House, Democrats won Arizona-5, Arizona-8, California-11 (goodbye Pombo!), and Colorado 7 (Perlmutter). It's still too close to call in California-4 (Brown/Doolittle), New Mexico-1 (Madrid/Wilson), Washington-8 (Burner/Reichert), and Wyoming at-large (Trauner/Cubin). DailyKos has a Western election results tracker.
In the governor's races, Democrats won in Colorado and Oregon - but lost in Alaska, Idaho, and Nevada.
Kari Chisholm | November 8, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
WA-08: Dave Reichert Ambivalent on Denny Hastert/Mark Foley Debacle
From Talking Points Memo:
Okay, we've got an answer for Rep. Dave Reichert (R) of Washington's 8th district. He says he doesn't want to take a stand on Hastert until after an investigation has been completed.Yet another reason to vote for Darcy Burner in WA-08.
You'd think that the former King County Sheriff would come out with a strong statement that sexual predators have no place in the halls of Congress and that he would not support any member of Congress who covered up any knowledge of Rep. Mark Foley's actions.
That might be a reasonable thing to assume. But then again, Dave Reichert isn't being reasonable. He's a loyal foot soldier in the Denny Hastert-led army.
Hat tip to Goldy.
kencamp | October 6, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
More of a connection with the West than a vacation spot
Joel Connelly at the Seattle PI takes a look at the congressional races in the Inland Empire, Peter Goldmark and Larry Grant both having good chances to pick off a couple of seats. The most interesting part of the column is this note at the bottom which points out the difference between how east coast brie chablis Democrats view the West and how others see it:
Would-be Democratic presidential candidates continue to fly into Seattle and host small fundraisers at the Rainier Club or bigger events at the Westin.In days gone by, Harry Truman whistle-stopped through Spokane. John F. Kennedy delivered a stirring 1963 speech at the Hanford N Reactor. Lyndon Johnson and Hubert Humphrey dedicated Snake and Columbia River dams.
Doesn't happen anymore. The 2004 Democratic ticket ignored places where Dems' 2006 prospects are looking up.
Its only connection with the inland West came when Sen. John Kerry went snowboarding at his wife's "cabin" near Sun Valley.
Emmett O'Connell | October 6, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
WA-5
WA-5 (Eastern Washington) is in play. It is a measure of the Democratic strength and Republican weakness in this election cycle that normally safe Republican districts are no longer safe.
Our candidate, Peter Goldmark, is in touch with the blogosphere, and he accordingly has been able to raise campaign funds.
Go here for an analysis of the race.
Go here for an interview in CQPolitics.
Go here for our candidate’s good-looking website.
It is not clear at this point if a big blue wave will sweep the country in November. But if it does, this is a district it could reach.
Leo Brown | September 6, 2006 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
The metaphor of shuttered homes
Gibney over at Washblog points out a sign for Rep. Cathy McMorris out in front of of a shuttered farm house in eastern Washington. While the sign, and the house, probably belong to another farmer down the lane, the image evokes a strong message for any Western Democrat.
While the Republican Party has talked a big game in the past twenty or so years about the Western economy and getting government off the back of sagebrushers, they have delivered little. The show down between the Republican led federal government and their allies in the oil and gas business is just one example of Republicans selling Westerners down the river.
Emmett O'Connell | August 27, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
Gas and Property Rights and fishermen
Now here's an interesting mix of issues. On one side you have the current gas and oil boom across the west that is pitting not only ranchers and small property owners against big Oil and Gas, their state governments and the BLM, but also (as pointed out here by the Grand Junction Daily Sentinel), hunters and anglers (thanks Coyote Gulch).
On the other side, you have a somewhat under the radar, astro-turf, sagebrush rebellion sweeping the West with five eminent domain initiatives.
One of the key pieces to the entire Western Democrat theme is the connection of the bullets and bait folks to the Democratic Party. Once they feel that we have their interests in heart (like protecting stream access in Montana for Schweitzer), they'll forget about voting for a Republican.
Anyway, here is a good part of the Daily Sentinal piece, leaves you thinking how to bring the bullets and bait crowd into the property rights fight:
Alliances among groups who once considered themselves at odds with popular environmentalism are occurring throughout the West, and they’re being noticed by politicians, chief among whom are Colorado’s gubernatorial candidates.“It feels like a natural alliance, a coming-together of common interests to fight forces that are threatening our outdoors,” said Evan Dreyer, spokesman for Democrat Bill Ritter’s gubernatorial campaign. “I think that for a very long time, this was something that was fought on the fringes, the environmentalists on the far left and the hunters’ groups on the far right. I think there is an agreement that they can be more effective by coming together and finding that middle ground.”
Emmett O'Connell | August 22, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
Eastern Washington Dems
The Democratic Party is fielding two strong candidates in Eastern Washington, and for the first time since before Tom Foley was Speaker, are going outside of the metro-Spokane area to find one to run in the 5th District. Peter Goldmark describes himself as an "independent Democrat" and does not follow the typical mold for Washington Dems, or even recent Eastern Washington Dems.
The Democratic Party learned in 2004 just how far it has fallen in the Inland Empire. It fielded an outstanding candidate -- former WestCoast Hotels CEO and Spokane civic leader Don Barbieri -- for the 5th District seat. McMorris, a state legislator from Colville, beat him by a 60-40 margin.No wonder. During the 1990s, Democratic state conventions seemed dominated by proposals from Seattle liberals to breach Snake River dams and shut down Hanford reactors.
Peter Goldmark is likely to challenge his own party, as well as McMorris.
"I'm not sure what's the necessary ingredient to fire the (Democrats') rebirth," he said. "I can tell you part of the problem -- the attitude of environmentalism at the expense of everything else.
"The Republican Party has been masterful at exploiting this. We need a melded environmentalism sensitive to local conditions: Environmentalism through regulation is a dead-end street. People will be good stewards of the land if they are recognized and rewarded for it."
Also running in Eastern Washington is Richard Wright, against the more than typically ethically challenged Doc Hastings. In addition to being Tom Delay's man on the ethics committee, Hastings is digging his own grave:
Rep. Doc Hastings, already under fire as chairman of the stalled House ethics committee, accepted a $7,800 trip to England in 2000 from a company he championed for a multibillion-dollar contract at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation, records released by an advocacy group yesterday show.In addition, other records released yesterday by a political Web site show that Hastings, a Republican from Pasco, did not file a required travel report for a 2004 trip to a resort on Stuart Island, B.C. That was paid for by another company also working at Hanford.
Emmett O'Connell | March 27, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
Cry for the roadless rule
When the Bush administration announced their plan for handling the Clinton era Roadless Rule, I chimed in saying that we shouldn't be afraid (as Western Democrats) of Bush's idea. The opening of allowing Western governors a chance to influence the final product was a place for Western Democrats to show how they could wisely balance local concerns and by coming up with a better plan that the federal government.
Now, they're just ignoring what our Western governors are saying and going their own way. Washington state recently joined a lawsuit with California, Oregon and New Mexico to force the federal government to listen to the locals.
Now we can complain, but ironically because the Republican federal government is ignoring the concerns of states, that according to the Western Republican credo have a better understanding of what is going on in their own communities. "Screw local communities though, we want to make some money," is pretty much what the rest of the GOP is saying.
So, chock with one up with Rep. Jim Gibbons plan to sell federal land to big companies back east and the federal government allowing gas and oil to run over ranchers. Oh, and I might as well mention the administration's plan to pay for tax cuts by increasing the utility bills of Northwesterners and by selling public land to companies back east.
Emmett O'Connell | February 11, 2006 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
(DeLay's) Doc Hastings draws an inside the ranks challenger
Ethically inert Doc Hastings has found a challenger in Republican Benton County Commissioner Claude Oliver. As chairman of the House ethics committee, Hastings has sat on his hands while Ambramoff and DeLay explode around him.
Now, he's seeing a challenge from inside his own party from a guy that has been around Republican politics for decades:
This is highly intriguing, because Oliver has given evidence before of being not a maverick but a party loyalist. Last month, the Benton Commission had to appoint a new county clerk. Two of the three commissioners chose to reject the recommendation of the county Republican central committee in making their choice; the holdout for the party point of view was Oliver. Should be noted that he apparently has had periodic conflicts with the other commissioners on other matters as well, and both of those commissioners have signed on in support of Hastings.Certainly he’s no outsider to area politics, though. The Tri-City Herald describes his background this way: “The 58-year-old Republican has spent nine years as a county commissioner and was the county treasurer for 15 years before that. He also served a four-year stint in the state House of Representatives from 1977-81 and ran unsuccessfully for state treasurer in 1988 and 1992.”
This is interesting to me in a back-east sellout sort of way. There isn't any mention of this in the stuff I've read so far, but if an opponent (Democrat or Republican) can paint Hastings with the brush of the "culture of corruption" while at the same time saying that he isn't doing enough to protect his district, a Democrat can force a hard race here. Jimmy at McCranium says:
Doc’s alliances with scandaled members of congress and lobbyists, his unwillingness to break with his party on important national issues have made him ineffective at leading the charge to defend his own in the 4th CD.The latest Bush budget that pulls surplus BPA money for deficit reduction is a prime example. The reaction from Hastings was simple… get behind the democrats. Unfortunately for Doc (and McMorris for that matter), is he is invisible in the shadow of Cantwell and Murray. Going with the flow 99% if the time won’t get you heard when it counts.
Emmett O'Connell | February 10, 2006 | Comment on This Post (5 so far) |
More Support for a Western Primary
The Seattle Times favors an early Western primary to give the West a bigger voice.
The quiet Western voice in national politics is bad for the country. The region has a better chance of being heard if a number of Western states held early, same-day primaries.They also note that
By the time presidential candidates pay any real attention to the West, there is usually only one candidate left from each party. At that point, the candidates only have to pay lip service to topics that matter to Westerners, such as energy, natural resources and public lands.
The DNC could have some Western states hold caucuses in the early primary season. The DNC sees the West not only as an emerging region but as fertile ground to grow its base.
Leo Brown | January 7, 2006 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
Winning Eastern Washington
The Cascade Curtain, going East of the Mountains, etc... For Democrats in Washington, the rural stretches beyond the ski resorts are a dream. Some day, some way, we'll win out there. Eastern Washington is about as close as you get to the issues that folks are dealing with in most of the interior West. Eastern Washington is our Sagebrush here in Washington.
At Blue Washington, they are talking about what we Ds need to do in Washington to win over those Yakimanians (Part II and Part III):
Republicans have succeeded in attracting moderates with values-based messages. They aren’t bashful about discussing faith, family values and doing what’s right. Neither should we. By being conflicted on those issues in the past, we gave them a tool to beat us. We need to take it back.Strategy Five: Discuss the importance to families of education, human rights and fiscal responsibility. Celebrate the fact that over 70% of eastside voters consider religion very important and yet the vast majority strongly support the separation of church and state. Voters have faith and morals but they don’t want a theocracy. They don’t want faith in Jesus Christ to be a mandatory prerequisite to be a federal judge. Family values include respect for all faiths, not saddling our kids with trillions in debt, embracing diverse peoples and peace.
This is a laudable effort, but for the most part it ignores the real threat to the Dems in Washington. Eastside Republicans aren't really the issue for us, its Westside Bellevue Republicans. In addition to running a better campaign, Sen. Patty Murry beat up on George Nethercutt because she's from Seattle and he's from Spokane. Gov. Christine Gregoire had a much harder time because Dino Rossi put suburban Seattle counties in play, actually beating Gregoire in Snohomish and Pierce counties.
I also want to mention the good points made in Part III to start up real netroots efforts. Good idea.
Emmett O'Connell | May 12, 2005 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
Schweitzer will lose this one
Gov. Brian Schweitzer may have run a much better campaign than Gov. Christine Gregoire last fall, but he's going to lose this particular contest:
Gov. Christine Gregoire today made a friendly wager with Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana on the outcome of Thursday’s NCAA tournament game in Boise, Idaho. University of Washington Huskies are the No. 1 seed with the Montana Grizzlies as the 16th-seed.Gregoire has offered a box of Washington Fuji apples while Schweitzer has countered with eight rib steaks from the Schweitzer Ranch. Gregoire called Schweitzer on the phone today and negotiated the friendly wager.
“There are eight steaks coming my way,” Gregoire said. “I’m making this bet because I know the Huskies will come out on top. If, by chance, the Grizzlies win, we will honor our end of the deal by delivering some delicious Washington state Fuji apples.”
Schweitzer asked Gregoire how many members were in the first family and that he would send two steaks for everyone in her family. Schweitzer specifically asked for Fuji apples stating it was his favorite selection.
The only way Schweitzer is going to get any Fujis is if he drives himself to Yakima and picks them himself.
Emmett O'Connell | March 15, 2005 | Comment on This Post (3 so far) |
Enronizing the BPA
One of the few things that unite politicians across Oregon, Washington, Montana and Idaho is defending the Bonneville Power Administration. And, now there is a fight brewing between our states' delegations and DC Republicans over privatizing the good old BPA.
The Bush Administration sees asking Northwest ratepayers to act like BPA is a private utility, not a public trust, as an easy way to get more money into the federal coffers. This is one of those "good government" fights that Western Democrats can pick up and used against "no government" Republicans.
Ironically, the utilities that depend on BPA power the most are small, rural public utilities. The only reason these utilities exist is that progressives in rural counties (at least in Washington) stood up and created them.
President George W. Bush's fiscal year 2006 budget, sent to Congress Monday, would, if enacted, be costly to rural Montanans because of provisions affecting wholesale power rates and farm subsidies."It would increase our rates 35 to 40 percent," said Terry Holzer, general manager of Yellowstone Valley Electric Cooperative, which gets electrical power from the Bonneville and Western Area power administrations. "It would double the price of our wholesale power at a minimum."
And, oh yes, as a final point of irony: Haven't private utilities treated the Northwest well so far?
The Aug. 4, 2000, conversation between Enron trader Tim Belden and Rick Shapiro, an Enron executive, began with Belden chuckling as he noted that it was hot in California, "and they don't have enough power. And they kill fish in the Northwest so that people in California can go enjoy themselves at a baseball game."Shapiro responded, "And then what are we doing? Are we exporting some of the 'fish-kill power' out of California?"
"We are exporting some power from California to the Southwest," said Belden, former head of trading in Enron's Portland office.
Emmett O'Connell | February 9, 2005 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
2006 Senate Roundups in the West
Stephen Yellin does a good job of rounding up all the 2006 Senate Races this week. The West is a major part of where the 2006 Senate races are going to be fought, this will be a good testing ground for all the stuff we've been saying about Schweitzer and the Salizars. If we do well in the West, and I think we will if we emualate how we suceeded in 2002 and 2004, this next class of Western Senators will be a powerful voice for the party to look West in 2008 and beyond.
According the Yellin, though, the Rs have the advantage right now, 5 seats to 3. I think we have a chance to get wins in Arizona, Montana, Nevada and maybe even Wyoming (if Thomas retires and Sullivan runs). If we just pull off two of those states, we take the region, 5 to 3.
From Yellin Report:
ARIZONA-Despite going for President Bush by a decent margin (54-45) in 2004, Arizona remains a possible pickup for the Democrats in 2006, in its Senate race. However, for this to occur it will likely depend on the movements of Republican Senator Jon Kyl. Kyl, a two-term conservative who was elected in the GOP wave of 1994 (he succeeded Democrat Dennis DeConcini) signed onto a term-limits agreement during his first run, and that pledge would be expiring in 2006. As a result, Kyl has two choices-to either break his pledge (which admittedly doesn’t matter much anymore) and run again, or keep the pledge and retire. Being only 59, my guess is that Kyl will choose to stay and run again. Who would the Democrats run against him, then? The likeliest Democrat is the State Chairman, Jim Pederson. Pederson, a wealthy realtor, led a successful initiative that made Arizona a non-partisan redistricting zone in 2000, and then became Chairman of the State Democrats in 2001. He generally has had a successful record, helping to elect Janet Napolitano as Governor in 2002 along with current AG Terry Goddard. Pederson has been sending strong signals that he will leave the Chairmanship and run against Kyl, in what could become a competitive race. Kyl does have the power of incumbency, but he’s the junior Senator to John McCain, so his name ID and popularity is somewhat in question. Kyl has not had a competitive race since 1994-in 2000 he was unopposed by the Democrats, and so his campaign skills may be a little rusty as well. Should Kyl retire, the seat will truly be competitive, and you can expect both sides to have competitive primaries. Of course, that will depend on Kyl retiring, and for now I don’t see that happening. LIKELY REPUBLICANCALIFORNIA-Senator Dianne Feinstein is up for reelection in 2006, and despite her age (she’ll be 73 in 2006) she’s raring to go for another term. A popular moderate in a moderate-to-liberal state (it gave Kerry a double-digit win), “DiFi” appears to be a lock for reelection. Considering the drubbing that Barbara Boxer gave Bill Jones in 2004, after all the hype about Boxer being in trouble from the NRSC, I don’t think the GOP will be willing to try it against the much more moderate Feinstein. Should Feinstein change her mind and retire, expect the Democrats and the Republicans to have competitive primaries; with the Democrats still having the edge in this blue state (unless Arnold Schwarzenegger decides that he wants to become “The Senatator”). SAFE DEMOCRATIC
HAWAII-With Senator Dan Akaka running for reelection, game-set-match for the Democrats. Akaka is an icon in Hawaii right alongside his colleague, Dan Inoyue, and can expect minimal opposition in 2006. SAFE DEMOCRATIC
MONTANTA-Along with Colorado, Montana saw a Democratic tide in the state in 2004. Not only did Democrats take the Governorship, they took the State Senate and forced a tie in the State House (before the GOP allied themselves to a moderate Democrat to prevent a fully Democratic committee list) under the leadership of the able new Governor, Brian Schweitzer. Now, the resurgent Montana Democrats are planning on taking out Senator Conrad Burns. Burns narrowly survived Schweitzer’s superb campaign in 2000 (he won with just 50%), and while his popularity is somewhat stronger than usual for a “vulnerable” incumbent, his age and lack of campaign activity so far could indicate that A) He’s considering joining a lobbying firm, as has been rumored, or B)He’s not really up to another challenge, and will retire. Or, it could mean he’s running again, but hasn’t geared up yet, which isn’t good for his hopes either. Democrats have two strong potential candidates, in Attorney General Mike McGrath and State Senate President John Tester. Both are popular statewide figures who won big in 2004, and have nothing to lose by running against Burns. Due to the fact that neither has declared their candidacy, however, we’ll leave Burns’ race as LEANS REPUBLICAN-for now.
NEVADA-While Senator John Ensign, like Nelson is a first-termed from the West, that’s about all they have in common. Ensign is a popular Senator from a swing state that voted narrowly for Bush, and as a result will probably avoid a major challenge in 2006. With State Senator Dina Titus likely to run for Governor, the Democrats will concentrate on that race instead, leaving Ensign largely in the clear. Should a strong challenge develop, we’ll change our ratings here, but currently it’s SAFE REPUBLICAN.
NEW MEXICO-With popular Senator Jeff Bingaman up for reelection, the question originally asked was whether he would run again. Now, it’s clear that the 4-term Democrat wants another term, and the new question is what sacrificial lamb the GOP will throw at him. Like Ensign, Bingaman could be somewhat vulnerable to a strong challenger, but I don’t believe either case will occur. SAFE DEMOCRATIC
UTAH- Senator Orrin Hatch is as safe as can be, and I don’t see any signs of him retiring, either. However, a curious report has wealthy medicine CEO Fred Lampropulous, who ran for Governor in the 2004 GOP primary, considering a primary challenge against Hatch, on the grounds that Hatch has “forgotten his roots”. Should that happen, we’ll take another look here, but this seat is SAFE REPUBLICAN.
WASHINGTON STATE-With Senator Maria Cantwell running for reelection, the GOP would love nothing more than to beat her. They also think they have the perfect candidate in State Senator Dino Rossi, who is still contesting a narrowly lost (129 votes!) bid for Governor to Democrat Christine Gregoire. The problem with that line of thinking (that voter anger will propel Rossi into the Senate) is two-fold: 1) If Rossi gets his way an a re-vote is held, he would have to abandon any Senate run, and 2) If Rossi gives up on the Governorship and runs for Senate, he’ll look as if he was contesting the Governorship for ambition only, and therefore develop a “sore loser” persona. In addition, as Stu Rothenberg wrote recently, a Senate race is far different than a Governor’s race, in terms of issues to discuss and campaigns to wage. Rossi’s mantra is “change”, as Rothenberg states, and to run as a candidate of “change” for the Senate is to be in favor of changing the GOP government in Washington. Oops, there goes THAT idea! As a result, I expect that Rossi won’t run for Senate in 2006, leaving the GOP without a top-tier candidate. While the GOP will not doubt find a decent candidate, Cantwell remains roughly as popular as her colleague, Patty Murray, and as such will likely win reelection. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
WYOMING- This being Wyoming, Senator Craig Thomas is a lock for reelection. However, rumor has it that the 73-year old moderate is considering retirement. While the GOP has no shortage of good candidates in that event, Democrat Dave Freudenthal is running for reelection as Governor, and that might force the GOP to split their resources (and candidates) to both attack and defend. As for the Democrats, their best candidate for an open race would be ex-Governor Mike Sullivan, who lost a bid for the Senate to Thomas in 1994 (they were neck-and-neck in polling before the GOP tide hit on Election Day). Sullivan remains a well-known and popular figure in Wyoming politics, and remains young enough (he’s 57 currently) to run a competitive race. Should Thomas retire, the dynamics of this race would greatly change, but for now, SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Emmett O'Connell | January 18, 2005 | Comment on This Post (3 so far) |
You have got to love these knuckleheads, Pt 2
Sam Reed may have some trouble getting the Republican nomination for Secretary of State in 2008, all because he wasn't a big enough toady.h
...Republican activists have had enough of him, according to three party insiders who spoke on condition of anonymity.They said Republicans in 2008 would likely back a conservative Republican primary challenger against Reed, a moderate who supports abortion rights. Though that position puts him at odds with many Republicans, including Rossi, no candidate who openly and clearly opposes abortion rights has won statewide office in Washington in decades.
Reed, who learned politics under the popular moderate Republican Gov. Dan Evans, is well regarded by elections administrators in Washington and around the country. He served five terms as Thurston County auditor before being elected secretary of state in 2000.
It doesn't matter that he is one of the most respected and popular statewide elected officials, he didn't do enought to get them the win, so lets get rid of him. Or as Tim Harris of the BIAW would chant, "Fire Sam Reed, fire Sam Reed."
The more this kind of stuff happens in Washington, the less is will become a swing state. This is also the same effect that could help Democrats win across the West. As Republicans become more and more safe, they will become more and more Red, leaving the middle open for a smart Democrat, like what happened in Colorado:
It was motivation, above all, that powered this Democrat victory. Democrats were driven and hungry from decades in the political wilderness. Republicans were complacent and soft from too long in power. Their motive for winning was to get in there and do things. Ours, it often seemed, was merely to stay in there. These attitudes translated into discipline and unity for Democrats, indulgence and disunity for Republicans. GOP factionalism was endemic and fatal....Democrats talked about making Colorado a better state, about not letting Republicans cut cherished programs, and about the GOP's supposed obsession with "gays, guns, and God." Republicans talked about . . . what? Other than denying their charges and hurling some back, we pretty much punted. Republican candidates picked their own issues locally. Churchill would have called it a pudding with no theme.
Emmett O'Connell | January 1, 2005 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
You have got to love these knuckleheads
The Washington GOP comes within the margin of error of sweeping Olympia based statewide offices of note, running a serious candidate for the governors mansion in I don't know how long, and these knuckleheads blame the loss on Republicans squandering political capitol from 1994.
I swear to you, these folks calling themselves "The Reagan Wing" are saying the Washington GOP is too far to the left.
One of their arguments recently was that the state GOP needs to do a better job appealing to libertarians:
But there’s one critically influential voting bloc which Republicans, if they stay true to form, will somehow neglect to consider. And it cost them dearly in 2004... again.Let me first point out that there is no Woman Party which runs candidates in elections. There is no Black Party. There is no Latino Party. There is no Fundamentalist Party. There is no Labor Party. None of those constituencies have their own political operation running their own candidates who have the ability to siphon off votes from one or both of the two major parties.
But voters who want the government to get the hell out of their wallets, their bedrooms, their businesses and their hair; voters who just want to be left alone; voters who still embrace the Founders’ notion of limited-government and good, old-fashioned freedom to pursue life, liberty and happiness...they DO have their own party.
I’m talking now, of course, about the Libertarian Party.
But of course, the libertarian candidate running in Washington was Ruth Bennett, an out lesbian running on a legalizing gay marriage platform. I could see a lot of conservative Republicans supporting her rather than Rossi. Makes tons of sense.
TRW has some plans to try to take back the party in Washington.
The more these folks drive the GOP to the right, the less likely they will be able to repeat or improve in Rossi for Governor 2004. This is like Brian Schweitzer losing a close race for governor of Montana, and then his party arguing that he needed to talk more about core Democratic issues. You know, gay rights, gun control and needles for addicts programs.
Emmett O'Connell | December 31, 2004 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
Washington: Gregoire v. Rossi
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Two important and interesting news items from the Evergreen State.
First, the 700 ballots in King County can be counted, according to the Washington Supreme Court.
Washington state's Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that more than 700 belatedly discovered ballots from Seattle's King County should be counted in the extraordinarily close governor's race potentially enough to tip the balance in favor of Democrat Christine Gregoire.
Second, yesterday the Washington Democrats announced that their tally shows Gregoire winning by just eight votes statewide.
This is the final recount under state law. Final certification will come Thursday.
Kari Chisholm | December 22, 2004 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
Washington Race Decided by Only 42 Votes.
If anybody ever doubts that one vote can make a difference, seriously, let us look west – to the farthest northwest corner of the lower 48.
The Washington state governor’s race was just decided by 42 (not a typo) votes. That’s slightly more than one vote per county. Unfortunately, ending a 24-year Democratic reign, Dino Rossi is the tentative victor. I say "tentative" because, as was expected no matter who won (lost), another recount has been requested.
No need to rehash the news report - CNN.com has already done that.
This poses some serious questions -
Are we really that divided or do the parties simply seem too similar? Can people not see the difference between us anymore and all a Republican has to do to tip the vote is throw the “L” word around?
If we really are that divided, how can we ever find common ground?
If we’re not that divided – if we really have become the other GOP, how do we start to move away from the center again? Do we compromise ourselves based on what the country seems to want? Or do we restructure and reinforce our platform and hope that people are paying attention?
This Blue Oregon article shows that we’re not necessarily that divided – it really is that the candidates don’t look that different. Not different enough for people to elect somebody other than a Republican mouthpiece who managed to get us stuck in a war that we really don’t know how we’re going to get out of and, at the same time, run this country in to the worst economic condition it’s been in since the Great Depression.
The other interesting thing that has been pointed out by Kari and others is that coat tails obviously aren’t what they used to be. People aren’t voting along party lines nearly as much as they have in the past – especially not in the west. Kerry took Washington, but Gregoire didn’t. Bush took Montana (handily) but Schweitzer did, too. I’d throw California in there, but we all know the Governator won on name rec. ;-)
All of these things point to what we’ve been saying all along – (even though Gregoire didn't win) the Western Democrat is the wave of the future for the party and for this country - the rural D who understands the farmer’s plight as well as tough social issues that concern the urbanites. The fact that suburban voters may be pro-choice, pro-school, and pro-environment, but they don’t want their property taxes to go up AGAIN – at least not without any accountability. They’ve got kids to raise! Nowhere else in this country is there such a contrast between rural and urban than in the west (OK, perhaps the mid-west, but we’re not talking about them). So nowhere else in the country will we be able to solve this problem – this problem that has resulted in a Republican winning the state of Washington for the first time in 24 years by only 42 votes. Kitzhaber? Richardson? Schweitzer? Who knows… but I really think we’re on to something (Hey, I thought it long before Kari had an editorial printed about it and then started a blog. Really. I swear).
Jessie Smith | November 24, 2004 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
Derek Kilmer as our own Brian Schweitzer, Dave Freudenthal
Derek Kilmer is one of the few reasons why Dems up here in Washington can have some sense of victory after coming way too close to losing the Governorship and losing the Governorship and AG's office to Republicans. We won back both houses in the leg, and Derek did his part by beating Lois McMahan:
...he convinced voters in a relatively conservative swing district to vote their economic interests.On Nov. 2, voters in a rural-suburban district in the south Puget Sound elected Kilmer, 30, to represent them at the Washington state legislature. He beat an honest-to-God right-wing Bible-thumping Republican incumbent - a Church Lady type named Lois McMahan. You may have heard of McMahan before. She got her 15 minutes in the spotlight in 2003, when she stalked off the legislative floor while a Muslim cleric delivered the day's opening prayer ("It's an issue of patriotism," she explained).
How did Kilmer do it? Part of it was sheer hard work, knocking on 15,000 doors over the campaign. Part of it was natural talent. Kilmer's a bright, credentialed young man: Princeton grad, Oxford Ph.D. He knows, and is known, in his district: he grew up in the region, and spent the last several years working at the local economic development board. Kilmer won support from both Chamber of Commerce types and left-leaning organizations like the Progressive Majority PAC and Howard Dean's Democracy for America.
He avoided ideological labels, but he put forward a positive message of progressive change, in the best sense of the term.
That sounds an awful lot like that "positive pragmatism" put forth by the chair of the chair of the Colorado Dems. In Derek's case it was a little easier, McMahan did her absolute best to look like an intolerant crazy. Even in a legislative district that is famous for a racial taunting incident at a high school basketball game, McMahan didn't seem to be the right person for the job.
Emmett O'Connell | November 21, 2004 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
The Blue State Republican
Dino Rossi is to Republicans as Brian Schweitzer and Dave Freudenthal are to Democrats. Republicans shouldn't celebrate too much here in Washington though. Gregoire ran a pretty bad campaign and it was really close.
Emmett O'Connell | November 19, 2004 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |