Washington
Meanwhile back at the ranch: Gubernatorial Edition
Gubernatorial is a wonderful word meaning pertaining to governors. Governors do a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to good government, though they generally get less press these days than senators and, of course, presidents, unless they are very good or very bad.
While the Senate contests in the West this year offer excitement and good pickup opportunities, the gubernatorial elections present a much more settled picture, with one notable exception.
Nationally 28 Democrats and 22 Republicans hold governorships. In the West the totals are seven for the Democrats (AZ, CO, MT, NM, OR, WA, WY) and six for the GOP. Nationally, there will be eleven gubernatorial contests on November 4, 2008. Six of those seats are currently held by Democrats and five by Republicans. Three of those eleven contests are in the West, namely in Montana (D), Utah (R), and Washington (D).
In Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, a star among Western Democrats, is looking strong. When Time magazine did a lengthy piece on The Democrats’ New Western Stars (Jan. 19, 2007), it was Governor Schweitzer’s photo they led with. Click here to watch Governor Schweitzer explain how elections are won in Montana.
In Utah, the GOP has held the governorship for 24 years, and Republican Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. will be hard to beat.
In Washington, however, the contest promises to be exciting, because Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire won a squeaker in 2004, complete with recounts and a court case.
Washington is a fairly Blue State. Though potentially a swing state, it has put its electoral votes in the D column in the last five presidential contests and is represented in the Senate by two Democratic Senators. Six of the nine House members from Washington are Democrats. In addition to the governorship, both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by Democrats. All politics is local, as the saying goes, but national trends--war, recession and an unpopular Republican in the White House--will be important, too. Click here for Governor Gregoire’s own website.
Leo Brown | April 27, 2008 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
Best in the West
From the beginning of Western Democrat, it was recognized that the West offered the Democratic Party a way out of a recurring pattern of electoral defeat.
The primary season reaches another critical junction this Tuesday. Democrats looking to win in November would do well to visit 270toWin.com and look at the state polls. Poll numbers can be fickle things, but the overall impression is clear: Barack Obama would run much better in the West than Hillary Clinton. The margin is, in fact, the difference between victory and defeat in November.
Consider six states in the West. The first three were won by Kerry, and are must wins in 2008. The second three were lost my Kerry, but would have put him in the White House had he won all three.
The first three are California, Oregon, and Washington. According to recent state polls, Obama would win California by 27%, Oregon by 1% and Washington by 17%. Hillary would win California by 19%, lose Oregon by 3%, and tie in Washington.
The second three are Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Obama would will all three by 7%, tie to 15% (two polls), and 12%, respectively. Hillary would lose Colorado by 14% and lose in Nevada by 9% (no recent poll from this source for New Mexico).
Leo Brown | March 2, 2008 | Comment on This Post (3 so far) |
The land turned upside down in Washington lands commissioner race
Spokompton has been doing some great stuff on the upcoming lands commissioner race in Washington State next year and they point out the main difference between the Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark and the incumbent Doug Sutherland.
Goldmark is a rancher from the eastern, rural side of the state. Sutherland is a career politician and government tactician from the urban Puget Sound.
More from Spokompton on Sutherland:
Sutherland served on the Tacoma city council in 1980-81, before being elected Mayor of Tacoma. He held that post until the end of 1989, when he took the job of City Manager in the newly incorporated SeaTac. He was there until 1992, when he took over as Pierce County Executive. That post he held through the end of 2000, when he began his first term as Commissioner of Public Lands. In his first campaign he defeated DemocratJennifer Belcher(actually it was former Gov. Mike Lowry, eoc), after successfully painting her as a stereotypical far-left liberal. I recall that election season in Eastern Washington for the great deal of talk about endangered owls and how little they mattered to Washingtonians. In 2004, Sutherland fended off Democrat Mike Cooper in a much lower-profile race, likely due to the national political conflagration that was President Bush’s Reelection.
So, how does it work out that a government establishment Republican from the urban Puget Sound runs a race against an insurgent Democratic rancher from the rural east? What kind of themes does Sutherland pick up? Stay the course?
Prairie populist Goldmark is giving us a look at what his themes may end up being:
I want to return the office to the people of Washington. I will treat our public lands-and the people who use them-with respect. It is vital that we treat our public lands as a long-term resource, to keep Washington's forests and fields healthy.
Emmett O'Connell | July 19, 2007 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
2008 and House Candidates in the West
Swing State Project recently listed ten Democratic House Candidates who ran close, but unsuccessful, races in 2006, and should run again. These are good candidates who ran in tough districts and now have some name recognition for a second attempt. Of particular note is that half of these are in the West:
Charlie Brown CA-4
Larry Grant ID-1
Tessa Hafen NV-3
Darcy Burner WA-8
Gary Truaner WY-AL
The New York Times and CQ Politics recently reported a list of fifteen close 2006 House races. Again five, though not the same five, are in the West.
CO-4
NV-3
NM-1
WA-8
WY-AL
Combining the two lists already gives us seven House seats to watch in the West in 2008. Two of the seven are in blue states (CA, WA). Two are in the red states (ID, WY). Three are in red states considered to be trending purple (CO, NV, NM).
The focus in 2008 will be on the top of the ticket, but we are now seeing how important control of the House is. Continuing or expanding Democratic control of the House in 2008 may well depend on having a Presidential ticket that can run well in the West.
Leo Brown | January 6, 2007 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
Another Western Democrat Elected to a Leadership Position
The Democratic Party is clearly looking west for leadership in the 110th Congress and not hesitating to name women to leadership posts either.
In addition to Harry Reid and Patty Murray, important Senate leadership positions are held by two other Western Democrats. Senator Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico is Committee Outreach Chairman, and Senator Barbara Boxer is Chief Deputy Whip.
Senators Murray and Boxer join Speaker of the House-elect Nancy Pelosi as leading women in the Congress from the West Coast. Such ascendancy has a long tradition in the West. Before 1917, the only states in the Union that granted the vote to women were in the West. The first woman elected to Congress was Jeannette Rankin of Montana.
Hat tip to Ridenbaugh Press, a very fine blog covering the Northwest.
Here is a link to all the leaders in the 110th Congress.
Leo Brown | November 25, 2006 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
Post-Election Statehouse Roundup
To quote Buffalo Springfield, "there's something happening here". Post-election, Western Democrats have made great gains in the states, building strong majorities in the legislatures and taking or retaining several governorships. Here's a look at the numbers, courtesy of NCSL.
Senate 12-18 Republican majority
House 21-39 Republican majorityPost-Election
Senate 12-18 Republican majority
House 28-32 Republican majorityPickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +7 seats
Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was overwhelmingly re-elected.
Pre-election
Senate 25-15 Democratic majority
Assembly 47-32-1 (Senate 25-15 Democratic majority
Assembly 48-32 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
Assembly - +1 seat
Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 18-17 Democratic majority
House 35-30 Democratic majority
Post-Election
Senate 20-15 Democratic majority
House 39-26 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – +2 seat
House - +4 seats
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter was elected Governor.
Pre-Election
House 13-57 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 7-28 Republican majority
House 19-51 Republican majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +6 seats
Republican gubernatorial candidate C.L. “Butch” Otter was elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 27-23 Democratic majority
House 50-50
Post-Election
Senate 26-24 Democratic majority
House 50-49-1 (
Pickups
Senate – -1 Seat
House – stays the same
Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer is up for re-election in 2008.
Pre-Election
House 26-16 Democratic majority
Post-Election
House 27-15 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – +1 seat
House - +1 seat
Pre-Election
Senate 24-18 Democratic majorityHouse 42-28-2(
Post-Election
Senate 24-18 Democratic majority
House 42-28 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House – stays the same
Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was overwhelmingly re-elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 17-11-2(
House 27-33 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 17-11-2(
House 31-29 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +4 seats
Pre-Election
House 19-56 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 8-21 Republican majority
House 19-56 Republican majority
Senate – stays the same
House – stays the same
Republican Governor Jon Huntsman is up for re-election in 2008.
Pre-Election
Senate 26-23 Democratic majority
House 56-42 Democratic majority
Post-Election
Senate 32-17 Democratic majority (not since 1965)
House 63-35 Democratic majority
Senate – +6 seats
House - +7 seats
Pre-Election
Senate 7-23 Republican majority
House 14-46 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 7-23 Republican majority
House 17-43 Republican majority
Senate – stays the same
House - +3 seats
Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal was overwhelmingly re-elected.
kencamp | November 22, 2006 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
Room to Grow in the West
Western Democrats did well in 2006. Here is a link to some helpful maps. Particularly noteworthy were pickups in Montana for the U.S. Senate and the Colorado for governorship, plus four pick-ups in the House of Representatives. And we won the office of Secretary of State in the swing states of New Mexico and Nevada. (Think Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 for the importance of this). But we could have done better, and in 2008 we can. For the Senate in 2008 think Colorado and New Mexico. There is still room to grow in the West.
But returning to 2006, Senate pickups in Arizona and Nevada were possible. Governor’s mansion pickups were possible in Alaska, Nevada and Idaho. Additional House pickups were possible in California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington, and Wyoming. And we didn’t win the election for Secretary of State in Colorado. These races were close enough to be considered competitive. Several of the competitive House districts in 2006 could be just as competitive in 2008.
So while we are still basking in the warm glow of victory, let us ask ourselves, what could we do better? Any campaign can be critiqued, but I think the biggest factor is that we were outspent. Jack Carter was outspent four to one in Nevada. The GOP and the Club for Growth poured a ton of money into ID-1. The national GOP was spending much more in CA-4 than the DCCC was. And so it went in many districts. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton spent $30 million defeating token opposition in New York. Now I understand that each candidate can raise his or her own funds, and the national committees carefully decide where to spend scarce resources, but more seed money in planting season and more money at harvest time would go a long way in the West. Something to think about for 2008.
Leo Brown | November 21, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
Goldmark should get back on the horse
Getting back on the horse shouldn't be hard for a horseman from the Okanogan. Peter Goldmark lost, but if he runs again in two year, I think he'll win.
Goldmark did better in every single county, rural or otherwise, across the WA-5 than 2004's sacrificial lamb, Don Barbieri (2004 and 2006 results). The only county where he didn't markedly improve the Democratic margin was Spokane County, where one would assume a Democrat would poll the strongest. He proved a Democrat can be competitive in rural eastern Washington, and by improving margins in the more urban 5th, he can win.
This year's finish by Goldmark was actually the best result for a Democrat in the 5th since Tom Foley was picked off by George Nethercutt in 1994.
So, what can Goldmark do to win in a couple of years?
Keep on running. Its only just over a year until the campaign actually begins again, Goldmark should use the next year to raise his profile among Democrats where they actually are in the district, Spokane, Pullman and Walla Walla. Be seen in those meetings, go to JJ Dinners and bid on crappy auction items.
Use the Democratic majority in Washington (state and DC) to his advantage. One of Goldmark's chief Democratic sponsors, Rep. Norm Dicks, will be the chair of interior appropriations in the next Congress. Washington also has a Democratic governor and large Democratic majorities in the state legislator. Use those.
Its not totally unheard of for Washington governors to go overseas on trade missions to promote Washington goods. Most of those goods come from eastern Washington, and who better to send than an Okanogan rancher?
One of McMorris's strengths the past couple of years was that she was in the majority, and that she could "deliver" for the 5th. She won't be this time around, and she'll suffer through two years as a bank bencher in the minority party. The Washington delegation can use Goldmark as "their man in the 5th," sort of how Sen. Ted Stevens used senatorial candidate Mike McGavick when he needed to give someone credit for keeping oil tankers out of Puget Sound.
I could also imagine Goldmark traveling to the other Washington to lobby transportation appropriations chair Sen. Patty Murray for some new roads and Dicks for some salmon recovery money.
Keep the website up and use it. If the 2004 Democratic primary was the meetup election, the 2006 general was the Youtube election. What you do on the internet is becoming increasingly important. And, its a cheap way to keep your name out there between elections.
What Goldmark does with his web presence now, how consistent he is with connecting with his supporters, will matter a lot in two years. McMorris is still the elected official, so she'll get most of the free media from local tv and print, but Goldmark can dominate her on the internet. So blog, vlog and podcast.
Goldmark also got a lot of support from the Washington state blogosphere, by keeping his presence up and current will only boost that support that much more.
Emmett O'Connell | November 10, 2006 | Comment on This Post (6 so far) |
Tester leading...
Of course, the big story in the West is that Jon Tester is leading Conrad Burns. As of 9:30 Mountain Time, he's up 49% to 48% leading by less than 2000 votes, out of nearly 400,000 cast.
In the US House, Democrats won Arizona-5, Arizona-8, California-11 (goodbye Pombo!), and Colorado 7 (Perlmutter). It's still too close to call in California-4 (Brown/Doolittle), New Mexico-1 (Madrid/Wilson), Washington-8 (Burner/Reichert), and Wyoming at-large (Trauner/Cubin). DailyKos has a Western election results tracker.
In the governor's races, Democrats won in Colorado and Oregon - but lost in Alaska, Idaho, and Nevada.
Kari Chisholm | November 8, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
WA-08: Dave Reichert Ambivalent on Denny Hastert/Mark Foley Debacle
From Talking Points Memo:
Okay, we've got an answer for Rep. Dave Reichert (R) of Washington's 8th district. He says he doesn't want to take a stand on Hastert until after an investigation has been completed.Yet another reason to vote for Darcy Burner in WA-08.
You'd think that the former King County Sheriff would come out with a strong statement that sexual predators have no place in the halls of Congress and that he would not support any member of Congress who covered up any knowledge of Rep. Mark Foley's actions.
That might be a reasonable thing to assume. But then again, Dave Reichert isn't being reasonable. He's a loyal foot soldier in the Denny Hastert-led army.
Hat tip to Goldy.
kencamp | October 6, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
