Western Democrat

Gone

Is the McCain camp giving up on Colorado and New Mexico?

From CNN’s Jon King

While Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado are still officially listed as McCain target states, two top strategists and advisers tell CNN that the situation in those states looks increasingly bleak. Iowa and New Mexico always have been viewed as difficult races, but the similar assessment of Colorado reflects a dramatic shift for a campaign that had long counted on the state.

"Gone," was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states.

It’s not over until it’s over, and Nevada and Montana remain in play in the West, but this is good news for our Western strategy.

See FiveThirtyEight and electoral-vote for encouraging maps for Democrats.

Update October 21. The McCain camp is pushing back on the report they're losing hope in Colorado. See this link.

Update October 23. Though Senator McCain is headed to Colorado Friday, Republicans are reportedly slashing their television advertising in Colorado's three biggest television stations.
See this link.

Update October 29. CNN reports Senator Obama has doubled his lead in Colorado.

Polling in other Western states and swing states around the country continues to look favorable for Senator Obama and Democrats in general. Tonight's inspiring broadcast will surely help.

Leo Brown | October 20, 2008 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) Permalink: Gone | TrackBack (0) Colorado, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Presidential Politics

A chat with Howard Dean about the Western strategy

On Friday, I had a chance to chat with DNC Chairman Howard Dean. Naturally, I asked him about the Western strategy.

Over at BlueOregon, Jeff Alworth (who joined me on the call) has the write-up. Here's what Dean said about the West:

"We’re ahead in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado right now. We think the road to the White House leads through the west, and if we win those three states, I think Barack Obama will be the next president. [Even] Montana is in play. We're only down two there."

Not only that, but Dean's 50-state strategy is a key underpinning to Obama's 50-state strategy - which includes the West and extends beyond it:

"What Barack is trying to accomplish is something Bush willfully chose not to do. Barack wants to be president of all America, not just the half that agrees with him. The reason he’s adopted the fifty-state strategy is because he wants to be the president even of people who don’t agree with him so he can reunify the country. That’s what I find so refreshing, a candidate that wants to bring people together instead of what McCain is doing by driving them apart. So being a player in every region of the country matters: North Carolina, Virginia is in play, there’s the western states that we talked about that are in play—and that hasn’t happened for a long, long time. And I think that’s the kind of President Barack Obama will be, someone who cares about all the American people, not just those who agree with him."

Good stuff. Let's bring this one home, folks.

Kari Chisholm | September 15, 2008 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: A chat with Howard Dean about the Western strategy | TrackBack (0) Colorado, DNC, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Presidential Politics

The Battle for the West Commences

As we recently posted, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are shaping up as key battleground states for the 2008 election. Not surprisingly, and as Kari just noted, both Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain are already campaigning in these three states.

From the LA Times:

The top Democratic and Republican presidential contenders, Barack Obama and John McCain, brought their campaigns to the deserts of the American West on Monday, kicking off what is shaping up to be a fierce contest for the region in November.

The majestic vistas and suburban subdivisions of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico were among the most contested territories of 2000 and 2004, although they were often overshadowed by the struggle for electoral votes in Florida and Ohio.

"There are a limited number of possibilities to change the electoral map for Democrats," said Mark Mellman, a longtime Democratic strategist. "These three states figure prominently."

"This game is on," said Joe Monahan, an independent political analyst in New Mexico who said Monday's visits would probably be the first of many by the presidential candidates in the months to come.

From the AP:

[Senator] Obama is signaling, even before the Democratic primary formally wraps up, that he intends to fight this fall for Western states that narrowly went Republican four years ago.

New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado aren't definitely Democratic blue or Republican red. Instead, they're known as "purple states" by political junkies.

"We're going to fight as hard as we can in these states. We want to send the message now that we're going to go after them and I expect to win them," the Illinois senator said Monday.

"I'm absolutely confident that we're going to do very well west out here because people out west are independent-minded and are going to look at whether or not over the last eight years the country is better off under Republican rule. I think they're going to conclude they're not and they want fundamental change, something that I'm offering and John McCain is not," [Senator Obama] said.

[New Mexico Governor Bill] Richardson, the nation's only Hispanic governor, called the three states "fertile ground" for Obama, particularly if he courts Hispanic voters with Spanish-language ads, personal appearances and attention to their concerns, such as immigration reform.

Leo Brown | May 28, 2008 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: The Battle for the West Commences | TrackBack (0) Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Presidential Politics, The Big Strategy

The lay of the land out West

As far as the general election goes, I am assuming at this point that the contest will be between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain. The outlines of the electoral map start with the 2000 and 2004 maps. The Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii look safely blue at this point both by recent polls and by recent history. The Rocky Mountain core of the GOP, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho looks decidedly red, as does Senator McCain’s home state of Arizona. Alaska is a long shot for Senator Obama, as is Montana, unless Governor Schweitzer is on the ticket. The swing states are Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Polls go back and forth, but currently Colorado and New Mexico lean to the Democrats. Strong Democratic Senatorial candidates in those two states should help as well.

How important are those Western swing states? If the election were held today, the outcome would be very close, and Colorado and New Mexico would be crucial. Senator Kerry fell nineteen votes short of an electoral majority in 2004. Colorado and New Mexico have a combined fourteen electoral votes. Iowa, which borders Senator Obama’s Illinois and where Senator Obama is leading, has seven electoral votes. Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa plus the rest of the Kerry states yield a Democratic majority. Take away the swing state of New Hampshire, and you get an Electoral College tie, which would throw the vote into the House. A detailed analysis of the House races suggests that would lead to a Democratic victory in 2008. Add the swing state of Nevada (five electoral votes), and there is a bit more breathing room.

There remains much uncertainty. There are dozens of imponderable factors and unpredictable events that lie between now and November. One campaign or the other could end up sweeping the election. Given a sagging economy, an unpopular war, high gas prices, an unpopular Republican incumbent, and time for the Democratic Party to heal after a long and sometimes bitter nominating process, the wind should be at the Democrats’ back. Senator Obama is planning a fifty state campaign, as he should, both for the sake of the downballot races and the future of the party. With luck the election could be a Democratic blowout, in which case Alaska and Montana and neighboring North Dakota might be in play, but then again luck is not a plan, and the election could be very close.

So how can Senator Obama cement his narrow lead in the West? First, he has to clinch the nomination. By the only metric that officially counts, convention delegates, he is very close. Oregon recently gave Senator Obama a big boost. The Montana primary is June 3rd. With help from the superdelegates, Montana could put him over the top. Second, he has to reassure important constituencies. The Latino vote is very important in the Southwest, the region we have previously argued is where future elections will be decided and a region where Senator Clinton did well, partly on the strength of the Hispanic vote. Senator McCain, to his credit, is not anti-immigrant, so Democrats will need to pay careful attention to the Hispanic community. Recently, key Hispanic leaders in California have joined the Obama camp. Having Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico on the ticket would help in the Southwest, as would, of course, Senator Clinton. The Jewish community also needs reassuring. The Jewish vote is small, but significant in the Southwest, including California, Nevada, and Arizona. Having Mayor Bloomberg of New York on the ticket would help in that regard. Mayor Bloomberg would also reassure the business community and add economic expertise to the ticket. Those “hard working white voters” we have heard so much about lately need reassuring. Governor Schweitzer of Montana would be a good cultural fit, as would be John Edwards of North Carolina or Jim Webb of Virginia. If the party needs a woman on the ticket, in addition to Senator Clinton, Governor Napolitano, Senator Feinstein, and Senator Boxer, the last three from Southwestern states, come to mind. No one vice presidential nominee can satisfy all those diverse constituencies, but the campaign as a whole has to address all their concerns. The West, particularly the Southwest, will be a key battleground in 2008. Senator Obama and the Democratic Party need to look west.

Leo Brown | May 25, 2008 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) Permalink: The lay of the land out West | TrackBack (0) Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Presidential Politics, The Big Strategy

Best in the West

From the beginning of Western Democrat, it was recognized that the West offered the Democratic Party a way out of a recurring pattern of electoral defeat.

The primary season reaches another critical junction this Tuesday. Democrats looking to win in November would do well to visit 270toWin.com and look at the state polls. Poll numbers can be fickle things, but the overall impression is clear: Barack Obama would run much better in the West than Hillary Clinton. The margin is, in fact, the difference between victory and defeat in November.

Consider six states in the West. The first three were won by Kerry, and are must wins in 2008. The second three were lost my Kerry, but would have put him in the White House had he won all three.

The first three are California, Oregon, and Washington. According to recent state polls, Obama would win California by 27%, Oregon by 1% and Washington by 17%. Hillary would win California by 19%, lose Oregon by 3%, and tie in Washington.

The second three are Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Obama would will all three by 7%, tie to 15% (two polls), and 12%, respectively. Hillary would lose Colorado by 14% and lose in Nevada by 9% (no recent poll from this source for New Mexico).

Leo Brown | March 2, 2008 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) Permalink: Best in the West | TrackBack (0) California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Presidential Politics, The Big Strategy, Washington

Nevada Caucuses

Nevada Presidential Caucus will take place this Saturday.

For while it seemed that the country had forgotten the Nevada Caucuses. Some in the media in the fall assumed the nomination of Hillary was a foregone conclusion, ignoring the fact that no ballots had been cast. Then Iowa broke the race wide open, and New Hampshire kept it open. Suddenly Nevada matters.

This is a new role for Nevada, and predictions will be risky. Labor is important in Nevada, and a year ago John Edwards might have expected a big boost from labor, but Obama got the big union endorsement, and the race nationally looks increasingly like a two-person contest between Barack and Hillary. Hispanic voters might have been expected to give Bill Richardson a boost, but he pulled the plug on his candidacy after New Hampshire. At least one poll gives Obama a slight edge, but this has been a tough season for pollsters lately, and the margins are slim anyway.

One tempest has been an attempt by the teachers union to stop the convenience of caucus sites set up on the Las Vegas strip for the benefit of workers there. The lawsuit is seen as being promoted by the Clinton camp. Here at Western Democrat, we favor encouraging rather than suppressing the votes of workers, regardless of which candidate it benefits.

Leo Brown | January 16, 2008 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) Permalink: Nevada Caucuses | TrackBack (0) Nevada, Presidential Politics

Harry Reid: I am a Democrat because I am a Mormon

When Vice President Dick Cheney visited BYU, it was announced that Harry Reid, the highest national office holder who is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, would also be speaking at BYU. This is in line with the Church’s long standing policy of political neutrality.

The text of Harry's talk can be found here and here with video and audio links here.

He spoke of his personal journey, his faith, and his politics:

It is not uncommon for members of the Church to ask how I can be a Mormon and a Democrat. Some say my party affiliation puts me in the minority of our Church members. But my answer is that if you look at the Church membership over the years, Democrats have not always been the minority, and I believe we won’t be for long. I also say that my faith and political beliefs are deeply intertwined. I am a Democrat because I am a Mormon, not in spite of it.

Leo Brown | October 28, 2007 | Comment on This Post (5 so far) Permalink: Harry Reid: I am a Democrat because I am a Mormon | TrackBack (0) Nevada, Senators, Utah

ID Sen. - Larry Craig Continues to Lose Support

With the release of the police tape yesterday, Idaho Senator Larry Craig continues to lose support from the GOP. Senator John Ensign (R-NV) is the latest to call for Craig's resignation.

Sen. John Ensign told MSNBC today that it would be best if Craig resigns, MSNBC reported at 1 p.m. MDT.

Ensign's turning away from Craig is especially significant because he is chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Senate GOP's campaign arm that raises money and develops strategy to elect Republican senators. Ensign's statement suggests that Republicans fear that a prolonged battle by Craig to keep his seat will harm other GOP candidates in 2008.

They're scared. They know Larry LaRocco is a great Democratic candidate who can win Larry Craig's seat, and this situation has become John Ensign's worst nightmare, especially with the Club for Growth trying to persuade Congressman Bill Sali (R-Way Out There) to run for the Senate seat.

The word from Washington, D.C. is that there is high-level buzz that Larry Craig will resign as soon as today.

Reporters in Washington, D.C., are hearing high-level talk that Sen. Larry Craig could resign as soon as today.

The Associated Press cites "Republican activists." News stations including CNN and Fox started reporting Thursday that national Republican leaders and White House officials were huddling to find a way to persuade Craig to step down and limit the damage his scandal could cause to the party's election hopes in 2008.

Here's to a bloody Republican primary and Larry LaRocco winning in November 2008.

Update: The Idaho Statesman is reporting that Larry Craig will make some sort of announcement about his plans tomorrow.

Update 2: Larry Craig will resign tomorrow.

Idaho Republican Sen. Larry Craig will resign from the Senate amid a furor over his arrest and guilty plea in a police sex sting in an airport men's room, Republican officials said Friday. Craig will announce at a news conference in Boise Saturday morning that he will resign effective Sept. 30, four state GOP officials told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity.

kencamp | August 31, 2007 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: ID Sen. - Larry Craig Continues to Lose Support | TrackBack (0) Idaho, Nevada, Republicans, Senators

The Continued Rise of the Southwest

America’s population is making a diagonal shift from the Northeast to the Southwest. Five of the nation’s largest cities are in the Southwest: Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Antonio, San Diego, and San Jose. Phoenix is now that nation’s fifth largest city, displacing Philadelphia, now at number six. Mesa and Fresno are now bigger than Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Seven of the ten largest American cities lie within 500 miles of the Mexican border. In 1910, in contrast, the ten largest American cities were all within 500 miles of the Canadian border.

What this means to the Democratic Party is that the Northeast and Midwest aren’t a sufficient base by themselves for the future of the party. With the GOP dominating the once solidly Democratic South, Democrats must look Southwest for growth and electoral majorities. Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico have a combined 29 votes in the Electoral College and a corresponding number of seats in the Senate and House of Representatives. Moreover, the 2010 Census will undoubtedly raise that number beyond the current 29. Meanwhile, neighboring blue California’s population will continue to grow, reaching perhaps 60 million by 2050 with a Hispanic majority possible by 2042.

Newsweek is already predicting that the 2008 Presidential race will be decided in the Southwest. Their analysis:

The rise of the Swing-State Southwest (and the power of the Latino voters in it) is a function of timing, geography, demographics—and the Electoral College....The Southwest's ascendancy is linked to one key demographic: its vast, rapidly growing—but still politically unsettled—Hispanic vote….Generally speaking, [Hispanics are] culturally traditional, religiously devout and open to conservative appeals from the GOP. Economic populists, all too familiar with the trials of race-based discrimination, they feel an emotional bond with Democrats, too….In 2006 the Hispanic vote that went to the GOP dropped precipitously, to 30 percent. The war in Iraq was one reason, analysts say, but the main one was the war over immigration.

Given the mean-spiritedness of the recent immigration debate, the trend away from the GOP is likely to continue and even accelerate, strengthening the future Democratic base in the Southwest.

Leo Brown | July 11, 2007 | Comment on This Post (3 so far) Permalink: The Continued Rise of the Southwest | TrackBack (0) Arizona, California, Colorado, Demographics, Nevada, New Mexico, Presidential Politics, Republicans, The Big Strategy

Is the GOP losing the West?

The GOP is losing its hold on the rural vote according to a poll reported by NPR.

A new national poll indicates rural Americans are no longer reliably Republican, and the Bush administration's conduct of the war in Iraq seems mainly to blame.

"I think there are two big headlines out of this poll," says Anna Greenberg of the Democratic polling firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. "The first is 'Republican Collapse in Rural Areas.' And the second is 'Rural is the Battleground in 2008."

But Iraq is not the GOP’s only problem.

Nick Kristoff of the New York Times zeros in on the Southwest and how the nativist wing of the GOP is alienating both Hispanics and moderates on immigration.

…the closer you get to the border, the more voters back politicians who are looking for middle ground — and punish those who follow the rant-for-ratings route.

He sees Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico and their combined 29 electoral votes (more than Florida’s 27 or Ohio’s 20) as potentially the biggest battleground in next year’s presidential race. And he notes that Hispanics are the fastest growing part of the electorate and make up 28% of the population in Arizona, 24% in Nevada, 20% in Colorado, and 43% in New Mexico.

Kristoff cites Democratic congressional gains in Colorado and Arizona in 2004 and 2006 as evidence that Democrats can assemble a new Western majority and quotes David Waid, Chairman of Arizona’s Democratic Party:

“Arizona is in play like never before…and the Republicans are literally handing it to us.”

Republican strategist Clint Bolick sees the same trends.

Hispanic support for Republican candidates plummeted by 10 points, to 30 percent from 40 percent, between the 2004 presidential election to the 2006 congressional election debacle, costing the GOP as many as four congressional seats. In next year's presidential election, Hispanic votes could make the difference in four Western states, including Arizona. If Republicans continue chasing Hispanic voters away, they can kiss their national electoral prospects goodbye.

Here at Western Democrat, we have always believed that the future of the Democratic Party lies in the West. The GOP is doing their part to hasten that future.

Leo Brown | June 22, 2007 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) Permalink: Is the GOP losing the West? | TrackBack (0) Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Republicans, The Big Strategy, Urban/Rural Divide

Was Nevada a big waste of time?

It seems like every other state in the union is pulling all of the oxygen out of the room with an all-go-at-it February 5 primary.

The old idea of a Western Primary is as dead as dead gets, but we still have Nevada, right? Well, the Las Vegas Sun is pointing out that still very little attention is being paid to Nevada.

Well seriously, why bother? The game will be over by February 6, why bother learning a whole new game to win a handful of delegates two weeks earlier? How to win New Hampshire and Iowa are well laid out, so why not focus there for early momentum?

Emmett O'Connell | April 9, 2007 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) Permalink: Was Nevada a big waste of time? | TrackBack (0) Nevada, Presidential Politics

Nevada and Fox Update

The Nevada Democratic Party has ended its strange partnership with Fox News to host a candidate’s debate. PTV declined a live feed for a webcast. John Edwards opted out. Then Bill Richardson, too. Recent jokes by Roger Ailes, President of Fox News, about Barack Obama sealed Fox’s well-deserved fate.

Leo Brown | March 10, 2007 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) Permalink: Nevada and Fox Update | TrackBack (0) Media Coverage, Nevada, Presidential Politics

Could Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman run for President?

The New York Times has an amusing story about Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman - and his love of a gin martini, as expressed in a recent class he taught at a community college:

For the record, the mayor of Las Vegas, Oscar B. Goodman, likes his martinis made with a big cup of gin, on the rocks and a couple of garlic-stuffed olives. Vermouth need not apply, and don’t even talk to him about vodka.

That, in sum, was the lesson to be learned Tuesday night in a community college class, “How to make a martini with the mayor."

The article, which includes the exact specifications for his martini, also hints at a well-traveled Vegas rumor: Oscar Goodman may be considering running for President - as a favorite-son candidate:

Still, Mr. Goodman’s popularity and Nevada’s suddenly early presidential caucus (January 2008) has even led to some semi-serious talk in Las Vegas that the mayor might be a candidate for higher office, something he was quizzed about by his students on Tuesday.

That's a trick that hasn't been tried in decades. How would it work? Basically, he'd run for president, scoop up all the Nevada delegates, and then hold them out as a prize for any presidential candidate that earns his endorsement. Presumably, that would come with some strings attached.

In 1984, former Congressman Mo Udall ran as a favorite son in the Arizona primary. In 1988, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan considered running as a favorite son in the New York primary.

Here's the rest.

Kari Chisholm | March 5, 2007 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: Could Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman run for President? | TrackBack (0) Nevada, Presidential Politics

FOX would reach more in Nevada?

Dullard Marsh points to a pretty good explanation on the entire FOX v. Nevada v. Democrats thing. From the Washoe County Democratic chair:

By broadcasting on FOX, we hope to reach an audience that might not be exposed to our candidates and their points of view. I have a great deal of confidence in the quality of our candidates and I think they will come across intelligent, full of ideas and as people looking out for the best for this country and the people, not the political monsters portrayed by the right wing media. It will not convince the 30% die-hards that still support Bush. There are plenty of people that watch FOX and may not even realize how biased it is. It is worth a try to reach out to these people. It is not the only campaign event, but it is significant.

Instead of worrying about an opportunity for FOX, we can look at it as an opportunity for Democrats. The decision has been made and there are legitimate positions on both sides. The worst result would be if we canceled the deal, I don't think I need to elaborate on the coverage that would have.

Given that Nevada just elected an incredibly damaged Republican for governor over a very competent Democratic candidate, I think there is some outreach to be done there.

Emmett O'Connell | February 28, 2007 | Comment on This Post (10 so far) Permalink: FOX would reach more in Nevada? | TrackBack (0) Nevada, Presidential Politics

Just Nuts

The Nevada Democratic Party has partnered with Fox News to host the August 2007 Democratic Debate in Reno.

If you follow Fox News, you don’t need me to tell you this is just crazy. For links detailing why this is outrageous click here or here.

To take action, go here or here.

Leo Brown | February 22, 2007 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: Just Nuts | TrackBack (0) Nevada, Presidential Politics

Why Nevada SHOULD matter

Chris Bowers over at MyDD may be right that given the schedule and geography, Nevada may end up being another 1996 Delaware; an early state in the primary system that actually matters very little.

But, Nevada should matter.

First, its a Western State. Over the past six years or so, Western States have shown to be very interesting in how they choose Democrats they like. Think Jon Tester and the Salazar brothers.

Second, Nevada is the perennial "fastest growing state." That isn't so important,but in the same time, organized workers have grown in importance. In the same era of booming population and economy, the percentage of unionized workers in Nevada has also grown.

Actually, out Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa, Nevada has the largest percentage of union workers (14.8 percent) it is also the only one that is growing union members. Las Vegas (where most of the Democrats in Nevada live), despite being dominated by the service industry, is also one of the most heavily union towns in the country.

Unions in Nevada work and they work in a region dominated by the service industry.

From the BBC:

In a country where 8% of private sector workers are in a union, around 70% of restaurant and hotel workers in Las Vegas work on a union contract, and the share is more than 90% on the all-important Strip.

...

"There's this myth that manufacturing jobs were always great jobs," said D Taylor, Secretary-Treasurer of the local 226.

"But before they were unionized, they were just like a lot of service sector jobs today: crummy jobs with high turnover and bad morale.

"We have to do the same thing here that we did in manufacturing. These service sector jobs have to become the new middle class jobs here in America - because they can't move out casinos to Malaysia."

And Prospect.org:

Something is right with this picture, so right that in an America where Wal-Mart and a thousand other unnatural shocks drive working-class living standards downward, we can scarcely account for it. The picture is incomprehensible unless you understand the role that a union -- Culinary Workers Local 226, the Las Vegas local of the Hotel Employees and Restaurant Employees International Union (HERE) -- has played in the lives of its 48,000 members, their families and the city as a whole.

Local 226 is probably the largest -- and surely the most remarkable -- local union in the United States. While most unions have been shrinking or struggling to hold their own over the past several decades, and while hotel union membership has declined from 16 percent of the hotel workforce in 1983 to 12 percent in 2000, Local 226 has grown by 30,000 members since its low point in 1988. It has done that by organizing virtually every hotel on the Vegas Strip, so that roughly 90 percent of the jobs in the city's major hotels are unionized. Considering that Nevada is a right-to-work state where employees can work in unionized workplaces without joining the union, this is a breathtaking achievement.

It won't be the lost suburbanite cruising cable that candidates will have to reach in Nevada but rather tens of thousands of unionized service industry workers, who are the pioneers of the new union economy in America.

These new unions, most notably (and as mentioned above) the Culinary Workers Union Local 226, will have major power in how these caucuses actually happen. Caucuses are different from primaries in that people actually have to meet for a few hours to participate. This means that organizes groups, like unions, can show extra power in the caucus process.

Emmett O'Connell | January 31, 2007 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) Permalink: Why Nevada SHOULD matter | TrackBack (0) Nevada, Presidential Politics, The Big Strategy

Governor Richardson's Statement on the DNC Convention

Courtesy of Heath Haussamen, here is Governor Richardson's statement on the selection of Denver as the site of the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

“This isn’t just a win for Denver and Colorado, but for the whole mountain west. From Montana to New Mexico, the west is the most fertile ground for Democrats. The Denver convention in 2008 will only further these efforts.”

Today's announcement by DNC Chair Howard Dean, coupled with the decision to move the Nevada caucuses to the front, only boosts Governor Richardson's potential Presidential campaign.

kencamp | January 11, 2007 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: Governor Richardson's Statement on the DNC Convention | TrackBack (0) Colorado, DNC, Governors, Nevada, New Mexico

2008 and House Candidates in the West

Swing State Project recently listed ten Democratic House Candidates who ran close, but unsuccessful, races in 2006, and should run again. These are good candidates who ran in tough districts and now have some name recognition for a second attempt. Of particular note is that half of these are in the West:

Charlie Brown CA-4
Larry Grant ID-1
Tessa Hafen NV-3
Darcy Burner WA-8
Gary Truaner WY-AL

The New York Times and CQ Politics recently reported a list of fifteen close 2006 House races. Again five, though not the same five, are in the West.

CO-4
NV-3
NM-1
WA-8
WY-AL

Combining the two lists already gives us seven House seats to watch in the West in 2008. Two of the seven are in blue states (CA, WA). Two are in the red states (ID, WY). Three are in red states considered to be trending purple (CO, NV, NM).

The focus in 2008 will be on the top of the ticket, but we are now seeing how important control of the House is. Continuing or expanding Democratic control of the House in 2008 may well depend on having a Presidential ticket that can run well in the West.

Leo Brown | January 6, 2007 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) Permalink: 2008 and House Candidates in the West | TrackBack (0) California, Colorado, Congress, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington, Wyoming

Arizona, Nevada and the West are the fastest growing

Arizona grew by 3.6 percent last year and Nevada grew by 3.5 percent. And the West outstripped every other region in growth, including the South which had half of the top ten largest gainers, but also the largest loser, Louisiana.

The Baltimore Sun also notes the topsy-turvy nature of Arizona politics that is beginning to favor Democrats:

Long a Republican stronghold, Arizona now has a moderate Democrat as its governor. Democrats picked up two congressional seats in last month's midterm election, and voters rejected a ballot initiative banning gay marriage.

Arizonans are used to a certain amount of political turmoil caused by the constant influx of new residents, said Marshall Vest, an economist at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

"Whenever you have a vote on any particular issue, you never know what it's going to be," because a large chunk of the electorate has just arrived, he said.

Emmett O'Connell | December 22, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) Permalink: Arizona, Nevada and the West are the fastest growing | TrackBack (0) Arizona, Demographics, Nevada, Regionalism, The Big Strategy

The New West Project

This is wonderful:

The New West Project, headquartered in Denver, will conduct research and develop strategies to secure and exploit recent Democratic gains in the Western states, party sources said.

At least four Western governors - Janet Napolitano of Arizona, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Brian Schweitzer of Montana and Bill Ritter, Colorado's governor-elect - are expected to lead the group's advisory council, the sources said. Incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Sen. Ken Salazar of Colorado and other members of Congress will provide "strategic guidance."

Reid confirmed the creation of the new organization, which he said would "build upon the leadership of people such as governors Napolitano, Richardson and Schweitzer" and "work to focus attention on the West."

This is a high level group. Consider the Western Strategy in play, my friends. It is wonderful to see this sort of institutional arrangement that will only benefit our local, state and national candidates long term. It looks like part think tank, part strategy firm, part communications development - all aspects that will be welcome by the plethora of candidates that will be running these next few cycles to take advantage of our our new promise out here in the west.

The best part of the article? The quote from an unnamed "Western Democrat":

As an example of what the new organization may do, the Western Democrat said that political professionals would analyze such questions as "the difference between first- and second-generation Hispanic voters, ... what motivates them and how we communicate with them," as well as "why a recent transplant from California, who has voted Republican all her life, is now voting for Democrats."

Good question, "Western Democrat" - it just leaves me amazed to see our namesake invoked so strikingly in an article. Methinks the author of the article, John Aloysius Farrell , might just be an reader of our humble site. If so, thanks for the article John - we'll be watching for you in the future.

It's great to have a new project designed for this express purpose and examining the multitude of new questions that are arising from the new political climate in the West. Now, if any of those people involved in the project are paying attention it would behoove them greatly to include netroots and blog outreach as an element of the project. You see, since major political focus has been absent from the West for awhile the netroots and blogosphere have been proliferating and recruiting top candidates all over the place. It would be an essential element of any plan that you should put together.

I'm excited.

Here's the The New West Project!

Landon Mascareñaz | December 6, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: The New West Project | TrackBack (0) Arizona, Colorado, Demographics, Governors, Legislatures, Local Government, Montana, National Leadership, Nevada, New Mexico, Policy Issues, Regionalism, Statewides, The Big Strategy, Urban/Rural Divide, Utah, Wyoming

Post-Election Statehouse Roundup

To quote Buffalo Springfield, "there's something happening here". Post-election, Western Democrats have made great gains in the states, building strong majorities in the legislatures and taking or retaining several governorships. Here's a look at the numbers, courtesy of NCSL.

Arizona

Pre-Election

Senate 12-18 Republican majority

House 21-39 Republican majority

Post-Election

Senate 12-18 Republican majority

House 28-32 Republican majority

Pickups

Senate – stays the same

House - +7 seats

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was overwhelmingly re-elected.

California

Pre-election

Senate 25-15 Democratic majority

Assembly 47-32-1 (Ind.) Democratic majority

Post-Election

Senate 25-15 Democratic majority

Assembly 48-32 Democratic majority

Pickups

Senate – stays the same

Assembly - +1 seat

Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected.

Colorado

Pre-Election

Senate 18-17 Democratic majority

House 35-30 Democratic majority

Post-Election

Senate 20-15 Democratic majority

House 39-26 Democratic majority

Pickups

Senate – +2 seat

House - +4 seats

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter was elected Governor.

Idaho

Pre-Election

Senate 7-28 Republican majority

House 13-57 Republican majority

Post-Election

Senate 7-28 Republican majority

House 19-51 Republican majority

Pickups

Senate – stays the same

House - +6 seats

Republican gubernatorial candidate C.L. “Butch” Otter was elected.

Montana

Pre-Election

Senate 27-23 Democratic majority

House 50-50

Post-Election

Senate 26-24 Democratic majority

House 50-49-1 (Ind.) Democratic majority

Pickups

Senate – -1 Seat

House – stays the same

Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer is up for re-election in 2008.

Nevada

Pre-Election

Senate 9-12 Republican majority

House 26-16 Democratic majority

Post-Election

Senate 10-11 Republican majority.

House 27-15 Democratic majority

Pickups

Senate – +1 seat

House - +1 seat

Republican gubernatorial candidate Jim Gibbons was elected.

New Mexico

Pre-Election

Senate 24-18 Democratic majority

House 42-28-2(Ind.) Democratic majority

Post-Election

Senate 24-18 Democratic majority

House 42-28 Democratic majority

Pickups

Senate – stays the same

House – stays the same

Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was overwhelmingly re-elected.

Oregon

Pre-Election

Senate 17-11-2(Ind.) Democratic majority

House 27-33 Republican majority

Post-Election

Senate 17-11-2(Ind.) Democratic majority

House 31-29 Democratic majority

Pickups

Senate – stays the same

House - +4 seats

Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski was re-elected.

Utah

Pre-Election

Senate 8-21 Republican majority

House 19-56 Republican majority

Post-Election

Senate 8-21 Republican majority

House 19-56 Republican majority

Pickups

Senate – stays the same

House – stays the same

Republican Governor Jon Huntsman is up for re-election in 2008.

Washington

Pre-Election

Senate 26-23 Democratic majority

House  56-42 Democratic majority

Post-Election

Senate 32-17 Democratic majority (not since 1965)

House 63-35 Democratic majority

Pickups

Senate – +6 seats

House - +7 seats

Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire is up for re-electionin 2008.

Wyoming

Pre-Election

Senate 7-23 Republican majority

House 14-46 Republican majority

Post-Election

Senate 7-23 Republican majority

House 17-43 Republican majority

Pickups

Senate – stays the same

House - +3 seats

Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal was overwhelmingly re-elected.

kencamp | November 22, 2006 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) Permalink: Post-Election Statehouse Roundup | TrackBack (0) Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Governors, Idaho, Legislatures, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming

Room to Grow in the West

Western Democrats did well in 2006. Here is a link to some helpful maps. Particularly noteworthy were pickups in Montana for the U.S. Senate and the Colorado for governorship, plus four pick-ups in the House of Representatives. And we won the office of Secretary of State in the swing states of New Mexico and Nevada. (Think Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 for the importance of this). But we could have done better, and in 2008 we can. For the Senate in 2008 think Colorado and New Mexico. There is still room to grow in the West.

But returning to 2006, Senate pickups in Arizona and Nevada were possible. Governor’s mansion pickups were possible in Alaska, Nevada and Idaho. Additional House pickups were possible in California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington, and Wyoming. And we didn’t win the election for Secretary of State in Colorado. These races were close enough to be considered competitive. Several of the competitive House districts in 2006 could be just as competitive in 2008.

So while we are still basking in the warm glow of victory, let us ask ourselves, what could we do better? Any campaign can be critiqued, but I think the biggest factor is that we were outspent. Jack Carter was outspent four to one in Nevada. The GOP and the Club for Growth poured a ton of money into ID-1. The national GOP was spending much more in CA-4 than the DCCC was. And so it went in many districts. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton spent $30 million defeating token opposition in New York. Now I understand that each candidate can raise his or her own funds, and the national committees carefully decide where to spend scarce resources, but more seed money in planting season and more money at harvest time would go a long way in the West. Something to think about for 2008.

Leo Brown | November 21, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: Room to Grow in the West | TrackBack (0) Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Governors, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Senators, The Big Strategy, Washington, Wyoming

Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are now blue states

Emmett pointed us to the great article from the Salt Lake Tribune that had this great quote:

A Tribune analysis of U.S. House results shows that Democrats have narrowed a 20-point GOP edge in 2000 to a slim 48 percent to 47 percent deficit in 2006. In three states - Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico - Democrats have turned their red states blue, winning a majority in the House races.

...but the article also included great chart that tells the tale. Download the PDF here, or just take a peek (click to zoom):

Kari Chisholm | November 20, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are now blue states | TrackBack (0) Colorado, Congress, Media Coverage, Nevada, New Mexico

In 2008, Nevada is the new Iowa.

A couple of days ago, Tom Vilsack threw his hat into the ring for the 2008 presidential contest:

"Americans sent a clear message on Tuesday. They want leaders who will take this country in a new direction," Vilsack, Iowa's two-term governor, said in a statement. "They want leaders who share their values, understand their needs, and respect their intelligence. That's what I've done as governor of Iowa, and that's what I intend to do as president."

Well Tom, you also clearly intend to invalidate your home state caucuses. Like Tom Harkin ran in 1992, when an Iowan runs for president, your caucuses matter little to everyone else. Iowans aren't going to punish a favorite son and no other big name Democratic candidate is truly going to ask them to.

Which means the next caucus up is Nevada. Tom Vilsack, by running for president has made Nevada the Iowa of 2008 - great news for Western Democrats. Not just because the issues being discussed in a western state matter to us out here, it means our chances of nominating a westerner in 2008 are much improved. Nevada will be a natural spot for someone like Richardson to campaign (given his sky high re-election rate and majority support among all sub-groups - important in a diverse western state like Nevada).

Can you really see Hillary winning Nevada? Or Tom Vilsack for that matter?

Western Democrats have just indirectly made incredible progress because of the aspirtation of one Iowan. Thanks Tom, much appreciated.

Landon Mascareñaz | November 11, 2006 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) Permalink: In 2008, Nevada is the new Iowa. | TrackBack (0) National Leadership, Nevada, Presidential Politics, Regionalism, The Big Strategy, Urban/Rural Divide

Gibbons and Titus in Nevada

In Nevada Republican Jim Gibbons was holding a comfortable lead over Democrat Dina Titus when a series of explosive scandals rocked his campaign. Without going into the most controversial and explosive one, there are two others.

His former (illegal) housekeeper has spoken out.

And some of his “earmarks” had been kept secret.

Now the Green candidate has thrown his support to Titus.

Titus is closing the gap.

Definitely a race to watch tomorrow.

Nevada is a battleground state with two competitive House seats, a Senate seat, the Governor, and the Secretary of State as important contests.

Leo Brown | November 6, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: Gibbons and Titus in Nevada | TrackBack (0) Governors, Nevada, Republicans

George Will Discovers the West

In today's "election scorecard" column from conservative commentator George Will:

Four years ago all eight Mountain West states -- Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming -- had Republican governors. If Democrat Bill Ritter wins Colorado's governorship, Democrats will hold five of eight governorships in the Mountain West, which in the 1990s was even more reliably Republican than the South. In 2004 a change of a total of 63,508 votes in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico would have given those states' 19 electoral votes and the presidency to John Kerry. No wonder the Democrats' 2008 convention will probably be in Denver.

Bring it on home, folks. Bring it on home.

Kari Chisholm | November 6, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) Permalink: George Will Discovers the West | TrackBack (0) Arizona, Colorado, DNC, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Presidential Politics, The Big Strategy, Utah, Wyoming

NV-GOV: Gibbons' Nannygate

Nevada Gubernatorial candidate Congressman Jim Gibbons has some questions to answer after it has been revealed that he knew of his former housekeeper/babysitter's immigration status and yet still employed her. From KLAS TV in Las Vegas:

The woman, Patricia Pastor Sandoval, says she worked for the Gibbons' for years and the family occasionally made her hide in the basement to keep her illegal status a secret.[...]

Pastor Sandoval says one reason she is talking about her previous relationship with Jim and Dawn Gibbons is because of the statements Gibbons has made during his campaign about getting tough with illegal immigrants. After all, she was an illegal herself.

Pastor Sandoval, who is Peruvian, says she entered the U.S. in 1984 by hiding in the trunk of a car as it crossed over from Tijuana. She got a job cleaning the sprawling house on the outskirts of Reno. When the Gibbons family bought the house in 1987, she stayed on.

In the beginning, she says no one asked about her legal status, but it became abundantly clear the Gibbons family knew she was not here legally since they often asked her to hide when certain people came to the house.

So what does the Gibbons campaign do to answer the questions surrounding the employment of an illegal alien? That's right, they follow the GOP playbook and blame it on the Democrats.

Late Tuesday afternoon, the Jim Gibbons campaign issued its own statement in anticipation of the Channel 8 I-Team story. The scathing letter blames this controversy on Democratic candidate Dina Titus and accuses her of trying to focus the campaign on matters other than the issues, and of maliciously attacking personal reputations.

The statement did not address whether the story told by Patricia Sandoval is true or not.

Jim Gibbons needs to answer the tough questions and let the voters of Nevada know if he is a hypocrite who talks tough on illegal immigration and then employs illegal immigrants. But rather than tell the truth, Gibbons prefers to smear Democrats. His willingness to scapegoat Dina Titus for his own ethical problems shows that he doesn't have the character to be Governor of Nevada.

If you're in Nevada, visit Dina's website and sign up to volunteer. And if you're outside Nevada please contribute to Dina Titus' campaign. 1 hour a day of volunteering can make a difference and every dollar helps to keep the culture of corruption from infiltrating state government.

kencamp | October 25, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) Permalink: NV-GOV: Gibbons' Nannygate | TrackBack (0) Governors, Nevada

Bet on Jack

With less than a month before Election Day, parties, committees, and individuals are making decisions about where to put their time and dollars. Recent polls suggest that both the Senate and the House might change hands and the Democrats might sweep, but it isn’t over until the votes are counted, and four weeks is a long time in politics.

I noticed on Pollster.com that Zogby had Jack Carter up 49% to 42% over John Ensign in Nevada. Checking with the Carter campaign, I learned that the numbers were flipped, that it should be 42/49 the other way. Still, a seven point gap means that this race is winnable if the party seriously funds the Carter campaign. Jack Carter has name recognition, indeed, a name identified with integrity, morality, and values.

We need to expand our efforts to put as many contests in play as possible while the tide is running our way. In the West the Senate contests in Montana, Arizona, and Nevada should all be in play.

Go here from some great press on Brian Schweitzer’s visit to rural Nevada to support Jack.

Carter and Schweitzer — who both grew up in rural areas — highlighted Carter’s roots during the visit. Schweitzer said he and Carter are “gun-toting, pickup-driving, dog-loving, take responsibility for their actions, balance the checkbook at the end of the month, pay as you go, calluses on the hands, go to church on Sunday Democrats.”

“Jack is the kind of Democrat we need to send to Washington, D.C.,” Schweitzer said.

The party and the netroots should bet on Jack!

Leo Brown | October 12, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: Bet on Jack | TrackBack (0) Nevada, Senators

Western Roundup

A brief smattering of Western news, for those inclined.

First off, John Ensign is in another world:

Most of the country (Iraq) is pretty positive.

He's also speaking truth:

Yes. Our (GOP) behavior (on fiscal issues) has been wrong.

Richardson and right-winger Dendahl can't agree to debate :

The two camps had talked about an Oct. 15 debate but they couldn't agree on the terms. Dendahl wanted the debate televised live, but the governor's campaign argued that giving Dendahl an hour of air time would be a disservice to voters.

Richardson also lays out a fairly comprehensive position on Iraq:

I would set a timetable for withdrawal. I would couple that with a political solution of the three ethic groups forcing them to have a political solution. There is no military solution. Specifically, I would divide up the oil revenue, the cabinet ministries and force them to come up with a new political framework. I would also study Senator Biden's federation [proposal]. I think that may be ultimately the right solution.

In the same article, he clearly endorses the 50-state strategy:

I am on Dean's side. I think what Howard Dean is doing makes sense.... That is what we should concentrate on. The DNC's role is to rebuild the state Democratic party. For instance in New Mexico ... because of the DNC we have 4 extra full-time campaign workers that have been there. That is helpful.

Governor Napolitano is slaughtering her competitors among independents and well, everyone else:

A statewide poll released Tuesday found Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano with a 2-to-1 lead over Republican challenger Len Munsil, with the incumbent making deep inroads among Republican voters and attracting support from the vast majority of independents surveyed...

Napolitano held a 4-to-1 lead - 72 percent for Napolitano, 18 percent for Munsil, 3 percent for Hess, 7 percent undecided - among independents surveyed and had backing from 62 percent of voters overall in Republican-leaning Maricopa County (Phoenix) and 68 percent in Pima County (Tucson), a Democratic stronghold.

Bill Ritter is setting up for be the next Governor of Colorado in a landslide:

Less than two months before the election, Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter (D) has jumped even further ahead in Colorado's gubernatorial race. He now leads Republican Representative Bob Beauprez 50% to 34%. Ten percent (10%) are undecided.

So if all the undecideds swing to Beauprez, Ritter still wins. Sweet.

Back to New Mexico, where Dendahl is calling Bill Richardson a "vengeful, ruthless man." Constructive.

In Nevada, the first gubenatorial debate between Titus and Gibbons was declared even (and pretty ruthless). Although, Titus got in this good shot:

Titus then popped Gibbons with a reference to his now-famous speech in Elko last year, when he plagiarized paragraphs from an Alabama politician's speech and complained about "the three-hugging, Birkenstock-wearing, hippie, tie-dyed liberals" for their opposition to the war in Iraq.

'In my classes, congressman, if you plagiarize, you get an F.'

That's it for now, I may update later. I'll leave you with a Richardson quote that may resonate with everyone here:

My view is that the West is the future of the democratic party - Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah.

Landon Mascareñaz | September 28, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) Permalink: Western Roundup | TrackBack (0) Arizona, Colorado, Governors, Nevada, New Mexico

Are the netroots liberal? Or just partisan?

Over at the National Journal, John Mercurio shares a comment he got from Western Democrat's own Jonathan Singer. Here's the comment, since archives are subscriber-only:

You write, "Liberal bloggers, who, much like the Club for Growth, encourage ideological purity over party loyalty, cheered Chafee's victory."

I really don't believe that the top issue for the progressive netroots is "ideological purity." In some ways, I think you may have it backwards. The concerted netroots effort to go after Lieberman started when he went on FOX News to bash Democrats over the war, not because of his stance on the war (which was longstanding).

The netroots have supported a number of non-doctrinaire Dems who are willing to stand up for the party, most recently with Jim Webb. Brian Schweitzer, a favorite of many, certainly isn't in line with the left of the party on the issues of coal or guns, but he remains extremely popular. Other Western Dems -- Trauner in WY, Grant in ID, and Fawcett in CO -- show up on the Daily Kos/MyDD/Swing State Project ActBlue page even though they are not hard-core liberals.

Taking a look at unscientific approval ratings from Daily Kos readers, more moderate/conservative Democrat Harry Reid has a significantly higher approval rating (70 percent) than more progressive/liberal Nancy Pelosi (36 percent).

There are certainly issues upon which the netroots look for politicians to fall in line. Social Security, Iraq and Net Neutrality come to mind. But the netroots does not take the same tack as groups like Club for Growth on these issues. There was no challenge -- not even talk of challenging Ben Nelson, for instance. He may not agree with us on all of the issues, but he doesn't go on national television to denigrate his party, either.

Good stuff, JS.

Kari Chisholm | September 21, 2006 | Comment on This Post (11 so far) Permalink: Are the netroots liberal? Or just partisan? | TrackBack (0) Colorado, Congress, DNC, Idaho, Media Coverage, Montana, Nevada, Policy Issues, Wyoming