California
Meanwhile, back at the ranch: House Edition
President Bush’s dismal poll numbers, the flagging economy, beset with rising energy prices in the midst of a housing crisis, and the huge number of Americans who say the country is on the wrong track, all mean that Democrats could expand on their 2006 gains in Congress. Here are some House districts in the West where the outcome is not a forgone conclusion:
AK-AL
AZ-1
AZ-3
AZ-5
AZ-8
CA-4
CA-11
CA-50
CO-4
ID-1
NM-1
NM2
NV-2
NV-3
OR-5
WA-8
WY-AL
My favorite contests are CA-4 and WY-AL where Charlie Brown and Gary Trauner, respectively, hope to swing their districts into the Democratic column. Such a swing would be a fitting end to the Bush presidency, whose actions were eerily predicted by a satirical piece seven years ago.
Leo Brown | June 17, 2008 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
A Stealthy Private Army on the Border
As anyone who has been in the Navy or the Marines knows, San Diego has a lot of military bases. But until recently nobody knew that a stealthy private army was building their own base here, right on the border.
Fortunately, Democratic Congressman Bob Filner is on the case.
… they [Blackwater] don’t like to operate under any laws, as we know in Iraq. And, you know, they shoot first and ask questions later. And people—parents of family members have had great trouble getting any truth about what went on there. And that’s what we’re concerned about. Anybody who is training private armies or mercenary soldiers is a real danger to democracy. We know that from history. So this is not a company that we trust… They have operated in this situation with great secrecy, with—under different subsidiaries and shell corporations, and we don’t know exactly what they’re really doing or where other permits may have been pulled under different names.
Leo Brown | May 3, 2008 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
Best in the West
From the beginning of Western Democrat, it was recognized that the West offered the Democratic Party a way out of a recurring pattern of electoral defeat.
The primary season reaches another critical junction this Tuesday. Democrats looking to win in November would do well to visit 270toWin.com and look at the state polls. Poll numbers can be fickle things, but the overall impression is clear: Barack Obama would run much better in the West than Hillary Clinton. The margin is, in fact, the difference between victory and defeat in November.
Consider six states in the West. The first three were won by Kerry, and are must wins in 2008. The second three were lost my Kerry, but would have put him in the White House had he won all three.
The first three are California, Oregon, and Washington. According to recent state polls, Obama would win California by 27%, Oregon by 1% and Washington by 17%. Hillary would win California by 19%, lose Oregon by 3%, and tie in Washington.
The second three are Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Obama would will all three by 7%, tie to 15% (two polls), and 12%, respectively. Hillary would lose Colorado by 14% and lose in Nevada by 9% (no recent poll from this source for New Mexico).
Leo Brown | March 2, 2008 | Comment on This Post (3 so far) |
San Diego fires
I live in San Diego, and the fires here are the top of the national news. There is not much I can add to all the reports on the internet, TV, and radio, except to say that city and county government, state and federal government, volunteer agencies, and the people of San Diego have been doing a good job of orderly evacuations and heroic firefighting in a very tough situation. When this is all over, perhaps in a week or two, the losses will be totaled, and there should be some serious discussion about how to prevent or mitigate future fire disasters, which will surely threaten Southern California again.
Leo Brown | October 23, 2007 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
The Continued Rise of the Southwest
America’s population is making a diagonal shift from the Northeast to the Southwest. Five of the nation’s largest cities are in the Southwest: Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Antonio, San Diego, and San Jose. Phoenix is now that nation’s fifth largest city, displacing Philadelphia, now at number six. Mesa and Fresno are now bigger than Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Seven of the ten largest American cities lie within 500 miles of the Mexican border. In 1910, in contrast, the ten largest American cities were all within 500 miles of the Canadian border.
What this means to the Democratic Party is that the Northeast and Midwest aren’t a sufficient base by themselves for the future of the party. With the GOP dominating the once solidly Democratic South, Democrats must look Southwest for growth and electoral majorities. Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico have a combined 29 votes in the Electoral College and a corresponding number of seats in the Senate and House of Representatives. Moreover, the 2010 Census will undoubtedly raise that number beyond the current 29. Meanwhile, neighboring blue California’s population will continue to grow, reaching perhaps 60 million by 2050 with a Hispanic majority possible by 2042.
Newsweek is already predicting that the 2008 Presidential race will be decided in the Southwest. Their analysis:
The rise of the Swing-State Southwest (and the power of the Latino voters in it) is a function of timing, geography, demographics—and the Electoral College....The Southwest's ascendancy is linked to one key demographic: its vast, rapidly growing—but still politically unsettled—Hispanic vote….Generally speaking, [Hispanics are] culturally traditional, religiously devout and open to conservative appeals from the GOP. Economic populists, all too familiar with the trials of race-based discrimination, they feel an emotional bond with Democrats, too….In 2006 the Hispanic vote that went to the GOP dropped precipitously, to 30 percent. The war in Iraq was one reason, analysts say, but the main one was the war over immigration.
Given the mean-spiritedness of the recent immigration debate, the trend away from the GOP is likely to continue and even accelerate, strengthening the future Democratic base in the Southwest.
Leo Brown | July 11, 2007 | Comment on This Post (3 so far) |
Field Poll
The latest Field Poll is out for the Democratic Presidential Primary in California.
The leaders are Clinton (41%), Obama (28%), and Edwards (13%), but adding Al Gore to the mix would put him in second place at 25% and drop Clinton to 31%. Bill Richardson is in fourth place in single digits. Clinton runs strongly among Latino voters, support that Richardson could erode if and when his campaign gains traction. Clinton has the highest reported unfavorables (19%), Edwards the lowest (6%). The California primary is still ten months off, so a lot can happen to change these numbers.
Leo Brown | April 3, 2007 | Comment on This Post (3 so far) |
California spreading the Blue into the West
This is an interesting video from Peter Leyden of the New Politics Institute. While I cringed every time he said "becoming more like California," at least in migration numbers he has a point.
This hasn't been something we've talked about, but the more migration into urban areas of the West, the better chances Democrats have there, to put it frankly. Between 2000 and 2004, a period when Democrats won more than a few elections in the West, California lost nearly half a million people, most of those going to other places in th West.
Emmett O'Connell | March 15, 2007 | Comment on This Post (6 so far) |
2008 and House Candidates in the West
Swing State Project recently listed ten Democratic House Candidates who ran close, but unsuccessful, races in 2006, and should run again. These are good candidates who ran in tough districts and now have some name recognition for a second attempt. Of particular note is that half of these are in the West:
Charlie Brown CA-4
Larry Grant ID-1
Tessa Hafen NV-3
Darcy Burner WA-8
Gary Truaner WY-AL
The New York Times and CQ Politics recently reported a list of fifteen close 2006 House races. Again five, though not the same five, are in the West.
CO-4
NV-3
NM-1
WA-8
WY-AL
Combining the two lists already gives us seven House seats to watch in the West in 2008. Two of the seven are in blue states (CA, WA). Two are in the red states (ID, WY). Three are in red states considered to be trending purple (CO, NV, NM).
The focus in 2008 will be on the top of the ticket, but we are now seeing how important control of the House is. Continuing or expanding Democratic control of the House in 2008 may well depend on having a Presidential ticket that can run well in the West.
Leo Brown | January 6, 2007 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
Post-Election Statehouse Roundup
To quote Buffalo Springfield, "there's something happening here". Post-election, Western Democrats have made great gains in the states, building strong majorities in the legislatures and taking or retaining several governorships. Here's a look at the numbers, courtesy of NCSL.
Senate 12-18 Republican majority
House 21-39 Republican majorityPost-Election
Senate 12-18 Republican majority
House 28-32 Republican majorityPickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +7 seats
Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was overwhelmingly re-elected.
Pre-election
Senate 25-15 Democratic majority
Assembly 47-32-1 (Senate 25-15 Democratic majority
Assembly 48-32 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
Assembly - +1 seat
Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 18-17 Democratic majority
House 35-30 Democratic majority
Post-Election
Senate 20-15 Democratic majority
House 39-26 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – +2 seat
House - +4 seats
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter was elected Governor.
Pre-Election
House 13-57 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 7-28 Republican majority
House 19-51 Republican majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +6 seats
Republican gubernatorial candidate C.L. “Butch” Otter was elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 27-23 Democratic majority
House 50-50
Post-Election
Senate 26-24 Democratic majority
House 50-49-1 (
Pickups
Senate – -1 Seat
House – stays the same
Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer is up for re-election in 2008.
Pre-Election
House 26-16 Democratic majority
Post-Election
House 27-15 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – +1 seat
House - +1 seat
Pre-Election
Senate 24-18 Democratic majorityHouse 42-28-2(
Post-Election
Senate 24-18 Democratic majority
House 42-28 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House – stays the same
Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was overwhelmingly re-elected.
Pre-Election
Senate 17-11-2(
House 27-33 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 17-11-2(
House 31-29 Democratic majority
Pickups
Senate – stays the same
House - +4 seats
Pre-Election
House 19-56 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 8-21 Republican majority
House 19-56 Republican majority
Senate – stays the same
House – stays the same
Republican Governor Jon Huntsman is up for re-election in 2008.
Pre-Election
Senate 26-23 Democratic majority
House 56-42 Democratic majority
Post-Election
Senate 32-17 Democratic majority (not since 1965)
House 63-35 Democratic majority
Senate – +6 seats
House - +7 seats
Pre-Election
Senate 7-23 Republican majority
House 14-46 Republican majority
Post-Election
Senate 7-23 Republican majority
House 17-43 Republican majority
Senate – stays the same
House - +3 seats
Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal was overwhelmingly re-elected.
kencamp | November 22, 2006 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
Room to Grow in the West
Western Democrats did well in 2006. Here is a link to some helpful maps. Particularly noteworthy were pickups in Montana for the U.S. Senate and the Colorado for governorship, plus four pick-ups in the House of Representatives. And we won the office of Secretary of State in the swing states of New Mexico and Nevada. (Think Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 for the importance of this). But we could have done better, and in 2008 we can. For the Senate in 2008 think Colorado and New Mexico. There is still room to grow in the West.
But returning to 2006, Senate pickups in Arizona and Nevada were possible. Governor’s mansion pickups were possible in Alaska, Nevada and Idaho. Additional House pickups were possible in California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington, and Wyoming. And we didn’t win the election for Secretary of State in Colorado. These races were close enough to be considered competitive. Several of the competitive House districts in 2006 could be just as competitive in 2008.
So while we are still basking in the warm glow of victory, let us ask ourselves, what could we do better? Any campaign can be critiqued, but I think the biggest factor is that we were outspent. Jack Carter was outspent four to one in Nevada. The GOP and the Club for Growth poured a ton of money into ID-1. The national GOP was spending much more in CA-4 than the DCCC was. And so it went in many districts. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton spent $30 million defeating token opposition in New York. Now I understand that each candidate can raise his or her own funds, and the national committees carefully decide where to spend scarce resources, but more seed money in planting season and more money at harvest time would go a long way in the West. Something to think about for 2008.
Leo Brown | November 21, 2006 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) |
