Three Elections Presidential Politics, Wyoming

Wyoming was part of Barack’s Rocky Mountain firewall. And now Mississippi voted for Barack as well. Very different states, same result. And it is really hard to think of these two states as latte-sipping boutique states.

However, I would like to call your attention to a third recent election, this one in Illinois.

I live in California, in the land of earthquakes, but I was born in Illinois and lived in the Chicago suburbs for about 25 years. So when Denny Hastert’s old congressional seat flipped from R to D, I took notice. This is 6.0 on the Richter Scale. A strong one. This is also a validation of Barack’s strategy and message.

The Chicago Tribune noted Senator Obama’s TV ad for our winning candidate, Bill Foster, a nuclear physicist-smart, political rookie and predicted that

Sen. Barack Obama could bring out a huge turnout if he's the Democratic presidential nominee

. Others have noted this as well.

Obama's effect on the Foster race is emblematic of why Democratic Super Delegates are beginning to break for Obama. Not only is Obama the most electable Democratic candidate for President this fall, he's also the candidate that will help elect more Democrats to the House and Senate. And the effect the presidential candidate has on House and Senate races - as well as races for State Legislature - will be a big factor in determining who Super Delegates support. If you don't believe me, pull aside virtually any Member of Congress who represents a tough swing district, and ask privately who he or she wants to head the ticket. The verdict is virtually unanimous: they all believe that Obama's nomination will be far more helpful to their own candidacies than Hillary Clinton's. The same goes for candidates trying to take Republican seats. You hear four reasons for this assessment: 1). They believe that Obama will turn out large numbers of new Democratic voters that simply won't show up if Hillary is the candidate. This is doubly true when districts have sizeable minority populations. But it is true of young people across the board. 2). They believe that Obama will appeal to independents and some Republicans -- and create an environment more favorable to their own candidacies among those voters. 3). They think Obama will be much more helpful at raising money for their own races than Clinton. 4). Most importantly, many think Clinton's presence on the ticket will galvanize the right wing base. They simply don't want to run on a ticket headed by Hillary Clinton, and many say they would not campaign with her in their districts.

We’ve noted previously that Clinton would be a drag on Western Democrats.

"She's carrying huge negatives out here," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster who said Democratic congressional candidates would have to highlight their differences with the national party to be successful next year. "It's that liberal East Coast image that is so hard to sell in the West."

One key advisor to a prominent Democratic congressional candidate, who asked not be to identified discussing tensions within the party, went even further. "It's a disaster for Western Democrats," he said. "It keeps me up at night."

Leo Brown | March 11, 2008 | Comment on This Post (0 so far) Permalink: Three Elections Presidential Politics, Wyoming

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