Nevada Presidential Caucus will take place this Saturday.
For while it seemed that the country had forgotten the Nevada Caucuses. Some in the media in the fall assumed the nomination of Hillary was a foregone conclusion, ignoring the fact that no ballots had been cast. Then Iowa broke the race wide open, and New Hampshire kept it open. Suddenly Nevada matters.
This is a new role for Nevada, and predictions will be risky. Labor is important in Nevada, and a year ago John Edwards might have expected a big boost from labor, but Obama got the big union endorsement, and the race nationally looks increasingly like a two-person contest between Barack and Hillary. Hispanic voters might have been expected to give Bill Richardson a boost, but he pulled the plug on his candidacy after New Hampshire. At least one poll gives Obama a slight edge, but this has been a tough season for pollsters lately, and the margins are slim anyway.
One tempest has been an attempt by the teachers union to stop the convenience of caucus sites set up on the Las Vegas strip for the benefit of workers there. The lawsuit is seen as being promoted by the Clinton camp. Here at Western Democrat, we favor encouraging rather than suppressing the votes of workers, regardless of which candidate it benefits.
Your Personal Note:
So Hillary won the popular vote in Nevada with the votes of women and Hispanics, but Barack edged her out in Nevada delegates. Don’t ask me how that works. Edwards collapsed in Nevada. The campaign now moves to South Carolina and then on to a coast to coast series of primaries February 5th. For the moment it looks like a Hillary vs. McCain contest in the general election, which could be a problem for Western Democrats in campaigns at the local level and which could deliver the White House to the GOP in a year of war and recession that otherwise should be a Democratic sweep. The GOP may be poised to nominate a Western candidate who can reach across party lines, while the Democratic Party may be poised to nominate (again) an uncharismatic Easterner who would have difficulty reaching across party lines. But the contest is not over, and this election cycle may still hold surprises, and it is possible that both nominations won’t be decided until the conventions.
Posted by: Leo Brown | Jan 20, 2008 6:44:17 AM
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(and yes, we know that sometimes they're very, very wrong. Other times, they're right on.)