Presidential Polling
It’s still early in the 2008 campaign, but the election is only a year and a half away and the nominations could be wrapped up in half that time…or maybe not.
We have on the Democratic side, Hillary, Obama, and Edwards in the top tier, with Richardson trying to move up and Gore still on the sidelines, but potentially formidable.
On the Republican side, Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and now Fred Thompson are in the top tier. Romney would be, I think, a formidable candidate in the West, though the numbers below show considerable weakness nationally. Ron Paul is interesting, but he hasn’t a snowball’s chance.
So far, no one in either party has closed the deal with the voters. Hillary is leading in the national polls among Democrats, but I don't see her doing well in the West in the general election.
A recent Zogby poll shows Barack beating all the leading GOP candidates:
48% Barack Obama (D) 42% Rudy Giuliani (R)
46% Barack Obama (D) 43% John McCain (R)
52% Barack Obama (D) 35% Mitt Romney (R)
52% Barack Obama (D) 35% Fred Thompson (R)
But Hillary loses to Giuliani and McCain.
48% Rudy Giuliani (R) 43% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
47% John McCain (R) 43% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
48% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 40% Mitt Romney (R)
48% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 41% Fred Thompson (R)
As does Edwards
47% Rudy Giuliani (R) 43% John Edwards (D)
46% John McCain (R) 41% John Edwards (D)
50% John Edwards (D) 36% Mitt Romney (R)
48% John Edwards (D) 40% Fred Thompson (R)
And Richardson only beats Romney.
50% Rudy Giuliani (R) 35% Bill Richardson (D)
52% John McCain (R) 31% Bill Richardson (D)
40% Bill Richardson (D) 37% Mitt Romney (R)
40% Fred Thompson (R) 39% Bill Richardson (D)
Zogby comments:
“What we are seeing here is a continued resurgence of the moderates and the independents, building on the momentum and the key role they played in last year’s congressional midterm elections...Our polling shows Obama is seen as the most charismatic candidate and is also one of the top choices to reach across the political divide in our country to bring Americans back together. This is a John Kennedy–like combination of characteristics, and moderates and independents appear to be recognizing that.”
Who do you think can win the West?
Leo Brown | June 9, 2007 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
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Comments
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-06-10-voters_N.htm?csp=34
Hillary draws only 1 in 4 independents who "lean" Democratic, and 1 in 4 white men in the Democratic sample. These numbers would spell disaster in the West.
Posted by: Leo Brown | Jun 11, 2007 6:18:48 AM
I am truly surprised to see Obama doing so well in another poll. I don't know if this is the same as the LA Times poll I saw about a week ago that showed a similar result. In any case, I'm just surprised that a black man can do that well in this country. I say that as a person who is racially mixed, being black and chinese. I would like to think that race is not an issue, but then again look what they did to Harold Ford.
I digress. I also disagree that Republicans can go for Mitt Romney. How can anyone (D or R) trust someone who has flip-flopped on so many issues that he held for a very long period of time, and to flip-flop only before an election?
Posted by: political forums | Jun 22, 2007 8:07:28 PM
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(and yes, we know that sometimes they're very, very wrong. Other times, they're right on.)
