Three Senate races, the difference between Tester, Carter and Pederson
Jon Tester is giving Sen. Conrad Burns a run for his money. Actually, I don't think anyone would be surprised come November if Burns was beaten by Tester.
Jack Carter in Nevada is starting to run even with Sen. John Ensign. Carter came into this race somewhat late, had a weird start with a smoking pot confession, and despite not being a politician, is turning up the heat in Nevada.
John Pederson, on the other hand, is still running in double digits behind Jon Kyl, the not so special junior Senator from Arizona. Kyl is certainly no Sen. John McCain in terms of being a maverick and is almost the poster child for the stalled immigration reform package. He's the harsh kind of partisan that you would think a smart Western Dem would have a good chance against.
Also President Bush's support in Arizona is soft, and while Kyl's poll numbers have never been super, they have pulled up significantly as the election approaches. Actually, his worst performance was during the months of the immigration debate.
So, what are Tester and Carter doing well why is Pederson not getting any traction?
My main thought has to do with whether each candidate is an outsider. Tester fits the bill. Despite being a state legislator and a legislative leader, he had a primary race against a popular statewide elected.
Carter, on the other hand, is the true outsider. He really has nothing to lose and is running like it. He came from private industry, convinced by Katrina a year ago that public service was where he needed to go.
Pederson as the former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party is, probably safe to say, the most insider of the three. This probably changes his style a bit, while Tester and Carter can feel free to take chances, Pederson takes the well trodden road of candidates past. Historically, though, unless an incumbent falls down the stairs, they keep their office.
So, what are the other differences between these three? Or is Arizona a different place than Nevada and Montana, so you can't expect the same thing in three Western states?
Emmett O'Connell | September 1, 2006 | Comment on This Post (10 so far) |
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Comments
I think you are right in most of what you said. But to be fair, a lot has to do with the incumbents also. Burns, by his own description, can self-destruct in a word and has always been vulnerable -- Montanans see him as an embarrassment. Tester is a great candidate, but if not for the scandal, Morrison probably would have had a good shot at beating Burns also. Ensign is an empty suit, and Nevada is the most Dem-friendly of the three states in some ways, so running a good campaign that ties him to Bush should do well. On the other hand, Kyl is relatively intelligent and has some national prominence on some issues, so he's a very credible senator.
Posted by: OR Dem | Sep 1, 2006 8:47:04 AM
Keep in mind, also, that the poll showing the Nevada race very close was a Zogby Interactive poll, which is a non-scientific sample and all but worthless. Other polls show a bigger margin, so there's a lot of ground to make up in NV.
Posted by: OR Dem | Sep 1, 2006 8:55:53 AM
In truth, Rasmussen showed Carter within seven points of John Ensign. Rasmussen is a more traditional poll.
I strongly suspect the Mason/Dixon poll, which supposedly shows Ensign out in front by 21 points in the latest poll, is the outlier.
The far right Las Vegas Review-Journal sponsored the poll.
Posted by: Susan Nunes | Sep 1, 2006 2:19:19 PM
I wouldn't say Jack Carter is that superior to Jim Pederson. What data, if any, has said that Carter has narrowed the gap considerably in Nevada? I haven't seen it.
But this is an interesting question, because for all of his money, Pederson SHOULD have made this a contest, and just hasn't produced. At least the AZ's great governor will be returning, along with some new congresspersons, hopefully.
Tester has a great shot, and I think in 2008, another Republican will be replaced by a western Democrat: "Senator Mark Udall of Colorado" coming soon!
Posted by: WyoBlueDog | Sep 1, 2006 4:51:50 PM
BTW, the Vegas R-J is hardly a far right newspaper, and (unfortunately) that sounds like a more accurate poll.
Posted by: WyoBlueDog | Sep 1, 2006 4:53:46 PM
WyoBlueDog - Mark Udall, taking over Allard's seat?
Dare I say, that is very, very exciting. Count me in on that one.
Posted by: Landon Mascareñaz | Sep 3, 2006 9:31:04 AM
Unlike most politicians, Rep. Udall hasn't hid his desire (and likely intention) to challenge Allard. I think he's got a great shot. It's only too bad the race wasn't this year. However he'll have 2 great campaigners on his side in Senator Ken Salazar and the (inevitable) Governor Bill Ritter.
Posted by: WyoBlueDog | Sep 3, 2006 12:18:30 PM
Given the quality of the candidates, I am surprised that Tester isn't running away with this race. The GOP machine is hard to dislodge.
Carter has name recognition but needs money.
Pederson should be doing better. Immigration could be the issue here. It could break either way.
Posted by: Leo Brown | Sep 6, 2006 7:38:20 AM
I warned some on the liberal blogosphere about the Montana Senate race. Many on some of the more leftist sites rejoiced that the liberal Tester defeated DLC New Democrat John Morrison. But even with Morrison's extramarital affair, I think he would have been a better candidate, because....THIS IS MONTANA, NOT MASSACHUSETTS!
:)
Still, what happened, happened, and I hope Tester can pull this out. Though I'd rank him behind Casey, Whitehouse, Sherrod Brown, and about tied with McCaskill as the order in which we have the best Senate pick-up chances.
Posted by: WyoBlueDog | Sep 6, 2006 7:46:49 AM
The Pederson race is a lot closer than this commentary makes it out to be. Recent polls put us between 4.1 to 10 points. The 4.1 is a Zogby number, but still is an improvement from the past double digit poll numbers. Jon Kyl has no way to respond to Pederson's attacks or proposals, as it gets closer to election time I would expect the gap to narrow. Pederson has a better shot at Kyl than anyone has had before and with a lot of new ads rolling out, expect to see his support level grow. It also helps that Kyl has a significantly larger amount of money raised and has frequent visits from the Vice President and Bush himself. I wouldn't count Pederson out just yet.
Posted by: Karsten Walker | Sep 11, 2006 1:42:40 PM
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(and yes, we know that sometimes they're very, very wrong. Other times, they're right on.)
