WY-1 - Cubin down, Trauner up
Always great to see news like this filtering out of Wyoming:
Republican Barbara Cubin, Wyoming’s sole House member, won her primary election Tuesday and is favored to win a seventh term this November. But her underwhelming showing against a little-known opponent suggested that she could be vulnerable in November in a state that usually leans strongly to Cubin’s party.
With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Cubin had 61 percent of the vote against Bill Winney, a retired naval officer who took 39 percent of the vote despite spending little money. Cubin will face Democrat Gary Trauner, a small business owner who was unopposed in his party’s primary.
Cubin has struggled to win unanimous support among party members, in part because some party leaders think she has not adequately dealt with the state’s pressing issues, including the prevalence of methamphetamine. The Wyoming Tribune-Eagle newspaper, in an unenthusiastic endorsement of Cubin, said she showed a “lack of leadership” but was “the best that the Republican Party has to offer at this time.”
Cubin lost to her primary opponent in the heavily populated (for Wyoming!) Laramie County and barely won Casper. This does not bode well for a 6-term incumbant who has failed to achieve anything significant for the citizens of Wyoming. If you check out the Election 2006 blog can by Becket Hinkley here, you can stay attuned to this race and the other races in Wyoming.
Our man in the race is Gary Trauner. He has a great background, is running comparative in the money chase and has a great chance. As Leo and Emmett have been saying (here and here, respectively) this race is in play for real.
Learn more about Trauner beneath the flip.
From his campaign bio:
Gary Trauner, 47, is a husband, father, businessman, community volunteer, and elected official residing in Wilson, Wyoming. Sixteen years ago, he and his wife Terry chose Wyoming as the place they wanted to live and raise a family; they are now the proud parents of two young boys - ages 12 and 6.
Gary graduated from Colgate University and obtained a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) degree from the Stern School of Business at NYU. Terry, Gary’s wife of sixteen years, is an entrepreneur and currently co-owner of a growing Wyoming-based small business.
Gary’s personal interests have always centered on three things he holds dear: 1) family; 2) an active lifestyle; and 3) “making a difference” through public service.
National Democrats see Cubin as a potential target -- albeit a long shot -- this fall. Businessman Gary Trauner is the Democratic nominee. As of August 2nd, Cubin had $233,000 on hand compared to $206,000 in the bank for Trauner.
While the Fix may rate this seat as a long shot, with Cubin performing poorly in major population areas including her home turf of Natrona County , anything is up for grabs. Given that Trauner has about the same amount of cash that Cubin has and given this will be a solidly Democratic year (unless events occur that are not foreseen) we have a shot of picking this seat.
Wild Card: Will popular incumbant dem Governor Freudenthal (who easily won his primary) campaign for Trauner? Maybe some astute WY resisdents can fill us in on whether of not this will happen.
Landon Mascareñaz | August 24, 2006 | Comment on This Post (10 so far) |
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Comments
And as also previously noted here:
http://www.westerndemocrat.com/2006/07/our_man_in_wyom.html
Posted by: Leo Brown | Aug 24, 2006 7:06:31 AM
Trauner's also farther to the left of Ted Kennedy, and hasn't a chance in hell.
I encourage you all to contact his site and ask him where he stands on: abortion, the death penalty, illegal immigration, gay marriage, stem cell research, and the separation of church and state.
You won't find out! Too left for Wyoming.
Posted by: WyoBlueDog | Aug 27, 2006 9:27:48 PM
Hello,
Of course, Governor Freudenthal will not support Trauner. He is too busy shaking hands, kissing babies, and making jokes to take a stand and actually support a Democrat.
I was just at a conference and had another opportunity to see and meet the Governor a couple of weeks ago. I just voted for him in the primary and will vote for him in the general election, because I will vote for any Democrat, but he is a joke as a leader. I will continue to say this as long as he does not have a record on anything or take a stand on anything. If you can refute this, then try.
Of course Cubin will lose the election. She stands for less than Freudenthal does. She only got 60% of her base to vote for her in the primary, from someone who had no budget or any exposure statewide.
What does abortion, the death penalty, illegal immigration, gay marriage, stem cell research, and the separation of church and state, have to do with Wyoming or Wyoming politics? None of these are issues in the elections or at issue in the politics of the state. Most of the issues are local, economic, or deal with the wolves and bison in Yellowstone.
The politicians of Wyoming from both parties have been ineffective at bringing home the bacon to Wyoming. You would think that with two Republican US Senators, a Republican Congressperson, a Republican state capitol, besides Freudenthal, the Vice President having been a former congressman from Wyoming, although aint really from here, the state of Wyoming would have more money from Washington flowing in. Although the local politicians will tell you they hate big government, they dont mind money from Cheyenne or Washington flowing through their towns.
Cubin's big message after she almost wasnt her parties candidate the day after the elections is that she hasnt got her job done yet, and that she is against meth.
Daniel
Posted by: Daniel Cardenas | Aug 28, 2006 9:26:45 PM
Hey Daniel, I enjoyed the analysis and, by and large, agree. Freudenthal gets along well with the Repubs in the legislature .... not that that's necessarily a bonus .... but it's the one thing I'll throw out that he's accomplished. Not all Dems are automatically dirt, anymore, in a Repub's mind. That hasn't been true since 1994.
That, even more than the campaigning with Trauner, might help Trauner (I do so fervently hope) kick Cubin out of there finally. The thing I find interesting is that I do believe that, had Cubin retired this cycle, the Repubs could have nominated just about anyone and the seat would be a safe R. People might vote for Freudenthal, but they sure wouldn't have voted for a Dem in DC.
But now that Cubin is in this race, she has generated so much animosity over the years that I think there will be a huge fatigue factor (remember it from the Clinton years?) that leads people to say, "Ah hell, I'm voting for one Dem, I can vote for two."
I also expect a lot of staying at home.
Posted by: kainah | Aug 29, 2006 7:50:14 PM
Hello,
Thanks. I will give you that one. He does get along with the Republicans, but is he in bed with them? What is the fine line between both? Its hard for me to tell.
After looking at what the legislature did this year, I believe the only significant item was getting rid of the tax on food. I worked on the petition drive here in Fremont County to get rid of the tax. I believe the only reason they got rid of the tax was because of the petition, even though it didnt get the required signatures. The governor was against getting rid of the tax.
Getting rid of the tax has helped very much. I just paid 3.19 a gallon for gas today, nearly 40 dollars to fill up that used to be 18. That tax relief has been a godsend.
I hope the governor wins and I will certainly vote and campaign for him, but secretly, I hope just a little bit that he would lose. Maybe that will shake up the state party to actually run candidates that stand for something. There is no debate in this state. Everyone is cookie cutter. I think the average person would appreciate some debate, appreciate a man or woman who stands for something, even if we dont agree.
We dont need someone to pontificate on how they hate abortion, love god, love guns, love hunting, hate gay marriage, and on and on. We need someone who is going to bring jobs to Wyoming other than oil, gas, and coal jobs. We need someone who is going to rebuild our highways and streets, build affordable housing, rebuild our tourism infrastructure, protect our air and water, so that we can create a state where we would be proud to leave to our children. Thanks again for the comment.
Daniel
Posted by: Daniel C. Cardenas Jr. | Aug 29, 2006 8:48:03 PM
That's all nice, but you're both wrong.
Trauner is not even in Larry Sabato's Ferocious Forty House races. He's not a factor. Cubin for 2 more years. Maybe when the Democrats elect someone not from the Tetons and someone who doesn't have a holier-than-thou, condescending attitude (like Teddie Ladd and Trauner), then they might have a chance.
Dave is great. He understands, unlike you Daniel, that Wyomingites care about the aforementioned social issues. Dave doesn't want Trauner's ultra-ultra-communist-liberal stances on those issues to hurt his own impending massive victory!
Go Dave!
Posted by: WyoBlueDog | Aug 31, 2006 5:43:17 PM
Hello,
No doubt that the governor will win, there is no debate there, hasnt been ever. But what value does he have as a Democrat? He might as well be a republican, it wouldnt change anything in Wyoming. I see all these national papers and other media outlets exclaim how great it is for a redstate like Wyoming to have a Democrat governor. Where is the benefit? The governor has emasculated himself in order to win elections and to be popular.
The governor will never win any election beyond Wyoming, because he has no record. He shouldnt be pushed as the Democrats next messiah, cause in a national election, he wouldnt even win Wyoming.
Where is the proof that Wyomingites care about those social issues you mentioned? I read the papers and watch the news, and nothing is ever mentioned that comes close to Wyoming caring about those social issues. What I do see in our papers daily is economic issues and some environmental.
Maybe its just Fremont County where I live. But not one of the local candidates for any office is running on social issues, even the right wing nut jobs here arent. I dont know what part of wyoming you are from, but here in Fremont County we care about jobs, high oil and gas and uranium prices, good schools, water rights, agriculture, ranching, yellowstone, community infrastructure, and good health. On all these issues all the candidates are on the same page, both republican and democrat.
If you can show that Wyomingites just care about social issues, even the issues you mentioned, I will shut up. But I know you cant do it, cause it doesnt exist.
Daniel
Posted by: Daniel C. Cardenas Jr. | Aug 31, 2006 6:15:27 PM
Well first Tex, get the name of my party right: we're the Democratic Party, not the "Democrat Party." Second, we're the party of mainstream, middle class America. According to November 2004, Rasmussen Reports had 42% of Democrats identifying themselves as "moderate", only 28% as "liberal" and 22% of Dems as "conservative." The moderate-conservative wing of the party, of which the great Gov Dave governs from, is a whopping 64%, while the paltry delusional liberal wing is only 28%.
You want proof of the social issues? Here you go!
Look at the two US Senators, US Congresswoman, the state senate, and the state house, that represent us; and tell me social issues don't matter! All national officials are socially conservative Republicans. You yourself bitch about Gov Dave being too conservative...BINGO! He's too conservative because social issues matter in this state. He's not for gay marriage or gun control, because he's representative of the state. You seem to be living more in San Francisco than Fremont County.
Posted by: WyoBlueDog | Sep 1, 2006 9:06:09 PM
Hello,
You still have not proven anything. Just because the state of wyoming is controlled by republicans, does not mean that social issues dominate the public debate. Just because the national republican politicians are socially conservative does not mean that by defualt the local politicians are.
There is no debate that the local politicians are or are not conservative. Im just saying that its not part of the election process. Nobody is running on their conservative credentials, because everyone is conservative. Politicians here have to run on other issues, especially at the local level. Increasingly, our wyoming constitutional elective positions including the governor and our us senators and congressperson, become irrelevant because they do nothing for the citizens of Wyoming and more for the oil, gas, and coal industries.
Daniel
Posted by: Daniel C. Cardenas Jr. | Sep 2, 2006 8:20:57 AM
Hello,
By the way. You do not know my politics, to be able to call me a conservative or a liberal. In fact, Im a member of the Catholic faith, attend church and my children attend Catholic school, im also a member of the Native American Church and practice my native religion. I do own a gun, several actually. I love to hunt and fish. On my eighty acres here, I farm, own horses and raise cattle.
Im not in favor of abortion, not because Im some nut right to lifer, but because my tribe and my native religion is against it. I dont get involved in how people live their lives, so the gay issue is not something that matters to me. People dont pay my bills and take care of my family, so they dont have the right to say anything about how I handle my business, and I dont have that right either.
Also, I took a look at your blog just now. It seems to me that you either are a professional democrat or want to be one. You say you are 24. How can someone who is so young, know anything? Especially about politics. Maybe you took political science in college if you even got that far, maybe junior college, wyoming is full of them.
When I was at university I remember your type. These little professional politicians scurrying around trying to get elected to everything, volunteering for candidates campaigns, walking around in their cheap suits from sears going to all the political events and conventions like the DLC event you were raving about. People dont vote for your resume when it comes to politics, they vote on your character, but it seems you dont have one.
I dont cuss. It seems like you think if you through in a cussword once in a while, you know what you are talking about. Everyone in Wyoming dont cuss. If you think it gives you some authenticity in any way, you are wrong. All your cussing and negative attitudes on your blog and everytime you put something out on the web is going to come back and haunt you if you ever try to become a politician in the future. God bless us all if you do.
Daniel Cardenas
Posted by: Daniel C. Cardenas Jr. | Sep 2, 2006 8:49:24 AM
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