CA-50: Instant Replay California, Congress

I was out of town on vacation the week prior to the election, so I missed the non-stop barrage of ads in this election, which is in a district neighboring my own.

Had Francine Busby won a Congressional seat this week, the title of this report would be “7.0 on the Richter scale.” As it is, the election was a noticeable rumble, but not the big one. Busby lost by 4%. Two years ago she lost by 22% with very little money against an incumbent. This is a very Republican District with a 15 point registration edge for the GOP, but one where Democrats had hopes because the previous Congressman, “Duke” Cunningham, fell from the status of war hero to that of felon at the end of his career. Busby’s margin was not far from Gore’s and Kerry’s in this district, hence my title, instant replay

In the last San Diego mayoral election Donna Frye led all candidates in the initial vote, but failed to gather enough Republican and Independent votes to assemble a majority in the run-off. In the Congressional primary, Francine Busby likewise led all candidates, but likewise failed to build much beyond that to find the necessary majority. Again, the instant replay aspect comes to mind.

November will be a rematch between Busby and Bilbray. Unless there are new developments, it will be another instant reply. However, the GOP will have to continue to spend considerable money to hold what would normally be a safe GOP seat.

A few lessons:

1. Money counts. Busby did much better than in 2004 partly because she had more money. Nevertheless, she was seriously outspent, possibly by two to one. The Republicans will not hesitate to spend whatever it takes to hold on to their power. The lesson for November is obvious. A party that is considerably outspent will generally lose. Getting rid of the GOP crowd in D.C. won't be easy. Their fingers will have to be pried off the levers of power one by one. This means not only a push at election time, but on-going media, fund raising, think tanks, grass roots organization, campaign finance reform, etc.

2. All politics is local. This district is conservative, white, and affluent. What works here might not work elsewhere. What works elsewhere might not work here. For a Democrat to win this district he or she must not only energize the Democratic base, but also reach out to a significant number of Republican votes or at least convince the Republicans to stay home. The GOP spent a lot of time and money making sure the Republicans turned out. The corruption issue alone was not enough for Busby because Bilbray was not closely tied to Cunningham. Bilbray played the anti-immigration theme hard, a logical strategy for this district, but one that won’t necessarily play as well elsewhere in California.

3. Political patterns are ingrained. No tectonic shift has hit this district. The easiest way to win this district would be by some redistricting in 2010. As currently drawn, the California congressional districts are not very competitive. Nevertheless, it drains the GOP coffers when they have to spend a ton of money to defend a safe district.

4. Whatever moral victory can be claimed from a close race in a GOP-leaning district, in the final analysis, if you don’t get the most votes, you don’t get to go to Congress. If you don’t win a majority of the House, you are still on the outside looking in.

Leo Brown | June 8, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) Permalink: CA-50: Instant Replay California, Congress

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