CA-50
I don’t live in CA-50, but I live close enough to see the campaign being played out. Because every seat in the House is crucial this year, this race has drawn national attention and national money.
The special election is being held this Tuesday to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of Randy “Duke” Cunningham, who pleaded guilty to bribery and related charges.
There are 18 candidates, but only one major Democratic contender, Francine Busby, who had previously run against Duke. No one issue seems to dominate the campaign, other than the desire to rid the district of the Cunningham scandal.
Francine is leading in the polls. However, if she doesn’t get more than 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff between the top two candidates from each major party on June 6.
This is a GOP-leaning district. It will not be easy for Francine to get to 50% on Tuesday. Not impossible, but not easy. Voter turnout will be critical. If it goes to a runoff on June 6, Francine could still win, but it again won’t be easy because the Republicans will tend to unite behind their one remaining candidate. And, of course, the seat will be contested in November, presumably with the same candidates. In any event, the GOP has had to throw a lot of money into what is a normally safe district. But this could be Francine’s year after all. Those wishing to help can go to this link.
Leo Brown | April 8, 2006 | Comment on This Post (6 so far) |
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Do we know what happened today? Who won? or how was the voting spread?
Posted by: Keenan | Apr 11, 2006 10:02:27 PM
Busby 44%
Bilbray 15%
Roach 14%
So the June run-off will be between Busby and Bilbary if the official totals match the unofficial returns.
For details see
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/results/index.html
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/50thdistrict/20060412-9999-7n12elect.html
Local color:
Soccer mom first. Surfer second. Internet millionaire a very close third.
If Eric Roach had a more marketable last name, he might have finished second. Several of my Republican friends, and I have a lot, were supporting Eric. By all that I heard, he is a good guy.
The bad guy in the district is the disgraced Duke Cunningham, whose fall opened up this seat.
The RNC ran a negative ad against Busby, and I saw one negative add against Roach by another Republican (not Bilbray). Did those ads change the results? Hard to say.
The conventional wisdom prevailed. This was about what was expected from the polls, though who would come in second was never clear. The danger for Francine will be a replay of the results of the last mayoral election. That election was officially non-partisan, but the party leanings were clear. The Democrat had a plurality in the initial round of voting, but lost in the run-off. Can Francine reach out to this GOP-leaning district to get those extra votes in the run off? Stay tuned.
Posted by: Leo Brown | Apr 12, 2006 10:11:22 AM
Lessons from CA-50 for this fall
1. The GOP will go negative. The negative TV ads against Busby continue.
2. The GOP will spend a lot of money. TV isn’t cheap.
3. The GOP will attack strength to make it seem a weakness. Francine Busby is a soccer mom. She is portrayed by the GOP as in the thrall of corrupt lobbyists.
4. The Democrats need winning issues that will differentiate them from their opponents. It is hard for the average voter to find an issue in this campaign so far other than not having a convicted felon in Congress. But Duke Cunningham isn’t on the ballot this year.
5. The generic national preference for Democrats doesn’t necessarily translate into a victory in a GOP-leaning district.
6. All politics are local. What might work in CA-50 might not work elsewhere.
How will this play out in the June run off and in the November rerun? Stay tuned. At the very least the GOP will have to spend a lot of money to defend an otherwise safe seat.
Posted by: Leo Brown | Apr 15, 2006 8:28:27 AM
The NRCC continues to go negative in CA-50. For the latest, see
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/50thdistrict/20060422-9999-1m22busby.html and
http://www.hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/042506/calif.html
Posted by: Leo Brown | Apr 24, 2006 9:15:19 PM
CA-50 is currently a tie: Busby 45% Bilbray 45%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=eb1e2e45-af42-46ca-bb6a-4bbb21b974c5&q=27469
Posted by: Leo Brown | May 11, 2006 6:19:20 AM
Busby is now leading in the polls. See
http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/9238958/detail.html and
http://www.sacbee.com/24hour/politics/story/3290855p-12128940c.html
Someone once said the reason we have elections is to see if the polls are correct. The race is clearly volatile, and a Busby win would be a good-sized California earthquake, say magnitude 6.
Posted by: Leo Brown | May 20, 2006 2:08:42 PM
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(and yes, we know that sometimes they're very, very wrong. Other times, they're right on.)
