Burns being shown the door Montana, Republicans, Senators

Sen. Conrad Burns, who is about as deep in the Abramoff as anyone, is rumored to not be running to keep his Montana Senate seat.

Rumors like this don't see the light of day if there isn't some level of truth to them. Even if Burns isn't typing up his resignation, there are folks in the party that would really like to see him go. Ankle Biting Pundits (thanks Matt):

Considering the fact that Sen. Conrad Burns from Montana was below 50% in the pre-Abramoff "I'm guilty" ballot question, word is now spreading like wildfire inside Washington, DC that Burns will soon announce his retirement.

A source on Capitol Hill tells me that the National Republican Senatorial Committee is polling feverishly to see if the Senate seat is salvageable should Burns seek re-election. The prognosis, I am told, is not good.

Enter Congressman Denny Rehberg, Montana's wildly popular At-Large member of Congress. Rehberg briefly flirted with the idea of running against Max Baucus in 2002, but decided against it at the last minute (Baucus easily won re-election.)

Insiders tell me that Rehberg would be a strong candidate for an open seat and is beginning to be recruited heavily by members of the Upper Chamber and even the White House.

While Rehberg is more popular than Burns, he isn't as widley popular as this east coast GOP blog would have you believe. Who is widley popular in Montana? Democrats:

Rehberg's approval rating of 49 percent compares to 53 percent in a 2003 version of the poll. Rehberg is also up for re-election in 2006.

Baucus, however, is enjoying an approval rating of 67 percent. Only 19 percent disapproved of his performance, and 15 percent remain undecided.

Burns was marked for defeat even before he dove into the Abramoff, and Rehberg is about where Burns was before then (just around 50 percent, not a great place for an incumbent). Switching Rehberg into the race and putting Burns back on the bench may backfire for the GOP. It puts a weak, non-incumbent in a suddenly open race, admits that your incumbent was already weaker and opens up a house seat race.

Emmett O'Connell | January 10, 2006 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) Permalink: Burns being shown the door Montana, Republicans, Senators

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