Young can win the CA-48, you can help
Doing my part by pointing to a great argument for Steve Young in California. Help Turn Orange County Blue:
I was going to do a long diary this afternoon analyzing why this race is winnable and we shouldn't give up or slack off on it, but now I will take the opportunity (ironically) to be a slacker and put a condensed version in this comment:1. This is one of 16 districts in California where Kerry did better than Gore (along with 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 23, 29, 36, and 53), losing 59-41 rather than 60-40. It is a step in the right direction and may be a sign of increasing Dem strength.
2. The net partisan balance is 58.5-41.5 GOP. This makes it more Dem-friendly than the seats held by the following:
TX-17 (Edwards--31.8% Dem)
UT-02 (Matheson--32.8%)
MS-04 (Taylor--33.5%)
ND-AL (Pomeroy--37%)
MO-04 (Skelton--38.5%)
SD-AL (Herseth--39.8%)Not a long list, but a win is certainly not out of the question.
3. Most of all, the presence of Minutemen head and American Independent Party candidate Jim Gilchrist makes this very doable. Gilchrist took about 15% in the open primary and is well-financed and running a real campaign. There is a likelihood that he builds on that and ends up with about 20%. As a right-wing hardline anti-immigration candidate, that 20% is coming straight from GOPer John Campbell's hide. In fact, if the same breakdown of voters shows up on Tuesday as voted in 2004 and Gilchrist takes 20%, the likely result is Young 41, Campbell 39, Gilchrist 20. Remember the special election in the heavily Dem Nem Mexico 3d in 1997 (replacing then-newly appointed Energy Secretary Bill Richardson)? The Greens did what they always do in New Mexico and the final result was 43 R, 40 D, 17 G.
4. Finally, the California GOP is laboring with the twin albatrosses of Bush and Schwarzenegger around their necks. The dismal performance of the ballot initiatives last month speaks to the apathy and disenchantment of the GOP. Turnout stands to work in our favor.
Emmett O'Connell | December 4, 2005 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) |
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Comments
although it is CA, this a huge opportunity for Democrats for several reasons.
1) a strong showing in a solidly Republican District would be a breakthrough itself. but a win? maybe less possible, but definitely monumental.
2) Steve Young is a Mormon--and a win would be symbolic to what is an important voting bloc in the West. I've said, time and again, that if Democrats want a Sagebrush Rebellion Redux, or a broader sweep of the West, they need to regain the Mormon vote. (at reportedly 80-20, that's a tough sell). But half the reason so many Mormons are Republican is because they've been alienated by urban Democrats...
that is, it's very clear that Nancy Pelosi would not welcome Mormon, religion, or family values to the party tent.
But if there are enough Matheson, Reids, and Udalls, then Mormons will feel comfortable running against Flake in places like Mesa. Moreover, just like the Catholic vote, they are a huge and up-for-grabs swing vote in places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Boise, and other Western cities.
If a Mormon named Steve Young (even if he's not that Steve Young) wins as a Democrat in Southern California, I think you start to change the tide in heavily Mormon places that have trended Red in overall Purple states (Las Vegas, Denver, Grand Junction, Colo Springs, Phoenix, Tucson). And you move one bloc from red to blue in deeper red places where people take it for granted that to be religious they must be conservative. (Mesa and Northern Arizona, Spokane, Boise, and Wyoming--incidentally all of those places, except Spokane, once had Mormon Dems in Congress--before some urban Dems made the party a hostile place for the religious AND Repugs responded with their values veneer)
most Eastern Mormons are Democrats, Romney notwithstanding, and I would think candidates like Young could capitalize on some of that money.
Posted by: norm | Dec 6, 2005 8:27:10 PM
incidentally, that Kolbe seat is a Democrat steal waiting to happen. the Republicans are bound to nominate someone hostile to gay rights and abortion... which will seal their fate. my dream candidate for Tucson (where I'll be for Christmas) a pro-choice, pro-gay rights Hispanic Mormon* woman.
we can always dream.
*the reasoning above.
Posted by: norm | Dec 6, 2005 8:32:27 PM
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(and yes, we know that sometimes they're very, very wrong. Other times, they're right on.)
