The South drives the immigration debate, not the West
Even though Tom Tancredo of Colorado is the big cheerleader on conservative immigration policy, the West is not a hotbed of anti-immigrant sentiment. The make-up of Tancredo's Congressional Immigration Reform Caucus is mostly Southern congressmen. When you look at a recent Survey USA poll on how people feel about immigrants, you see why those Southern congressman want to join that kind of caucus.
Southerners feel generally less friendly to immigrants compared to Westerners. In 8 of the 12 former members of the confederacy, people were more likely to think immigrants take jobs from Americans than to take jobs that Americans don't want. The only Southern states that flipped were ones with higher percentages of immigrants already living there. The West showed more tolerance on the immigration issue than Southerners, the most anti-immigrant state by this poll was one of hte most northern, Montana. Seemingly, the farther away you get from the issue geographically, the more you agree with Tom Tancredo.
% Immigrants, Take Jobs, Jobs Don't Want
Alabama 2% 56% 40%
Arkansa 2% 53% 43%
Florida 18% 38% 57%
Georgia 9% 46% 50%
Kentucky 3% 51% 44%
Louisiana 3% 52% 45%
Mississippi 3% 53% 42%
North Carolina 7% 55% 42%
South Carolina 3% 53% 42%
Tennessee 5% 53% 43%
Texas 15% 39% 56%
Virginia 10% 40% 54%
Arizona 15% 42% 54%
California 28% 30% 66%
Colorado 10% 44% 51%
Idaho 6% 43% 53%
Montana 1% 48% 46%
Nevada 17% 44% 52%
New Mexico 9% 33% 63%
Oregon 9% 43% 50%
Utah 6% 41% 56%
Wyoming 2% 40% 55%
Emmett O'Connell | December 22, 2005 | Comment on This Post (1 so far) |
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The geography here is fairly simple. The states most worried about immigration are in the South and Midwest. The states not so concerned are in the Northeast and West, plus Florida. If the GOP alienates the Hispanic population by passing or advocating extreme measures, it could tip AZ, NM, CO, NV, and even TX and FL into the blue column. It is really hard for the GOP to win the presidency if they lose TX and FL. On the other hand, the battleground states of OH and IA are worried about immigration, as are to a lesser extent the blue states of PA and MI. The fears in the Midwest may stem from a decline in their industrial base rather than xenophobia. Moreover, the business base of the GOP is at odds with its nativist base. See http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/13437016.htm GOP may be saying 'adios' to Hispanic voters “If Republicans come across as the party that wants to turn Spanish-speaking people into criminal suspects who can be stopped at any corner by police demanding proof of citizenship, they can say adios to a significant portion of the Hispanic vote.”
Posted by: Leo Brown | Dec 22, 2005 9:43:31 PM
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(and yes, we know that sometimes they're very, very wrong. Other times, they're right on.)
