Matheson loved, Hatch not so much Congress, Senators, Utah

Even in Utah, that bastion of Bush-lovers nationwide, you can point to how Western Democrats can be successful and popular. Even more popular than a conservative Republican Senator with a plus-60 approval rating is Rep. Jim Matheson (Deseret News):

GOP officeholders get decent approval ratings in a new Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll, Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson gets the highest job approval ratings from his constituents among the whole bunch.

Has one of the reddest states in the Union sprung a blue leak? What is going on here?

"Matheson is just very popular among his 2nd District constituents," says pollster Dan Jones, who conducted the Nov. 10-12 survey for the newspaper and TV station.

Said Matheson: "I've always said Utahns look at the individual, not the party label. I've worked very hard, as has all of my office staff. We believe we put Utah first in everything we do."

While Matheson gets high praise from his district, statewide support for Orrin Hatch (facing a challenge from small business owner Peter Ashdown) is sagging. Facing "Someone else" Hatch actually loses 48 percent to 45 percent. So says DavidNYC at Swing State:

And even 33% of Republicans want to see Hatch gone. I'm not saying that Hatch is going to lose, or even that he's seriously endangered, but there is something quite unusual about seeing a very senior and still-popular incumbent with underwater re-elect marks. As the DMN notes: "Historically, such polls of popular Utah politicians find that more than 50 percent of their constituents want them to be re-elected."

Now that doesn't surprise me. What this poll tells me is simply that there is a potentially very strong anti-incumbent wind a-brewin'. It won't be enough to knock down Orrin Hatch, but it'll leave a lot of weaker GOP politicians flat on their behinds.

I'd be remiss in not mentioning the fact that Hatch does have a bold challenger - one Pete Ashdown, an ISP owner. I gotta give anyone willing to run under such circumstances a lot of credit. And I also want to give him and his supports a tiny reed of hope. In 1988, Democrat Jim Sasser won re-election to the Senate in Tennessee by a whopping 65-35 margin. Six years later, during the Republican landslide of 1994, he lost by an astounding 56-42 to Bill Frist (yes, that Bill Frist). That's a turnaround of 44 points, in case you're counting.

I wouldn't be so fast to use Hatch as the exception that proves the anti-incumbant rule. Why couldn't Ashdown win? Aside from him way behind in money $37K to $1.7 million, who is to say that Hatch couldn't be gotten by a Matheson-type pol. And who is to say that isn't Ashdown?

Emmett O'Connell | November 22, 2005 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) Permalink: Matheson loved, Hatch not so much Congress, Senators, Utah

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