The Elite Eight
Skiing season is finally over in Utah, but the 2008 political season is beginning. The Salt Lake Tribune editorializes about a Western primary:
Folks across the West pride themselves on their ability to stand on their own. But, if they want to have any say over the way the nation is governed, they are going to have to do a better job of standing together. This recognition has drawn the Democrat who is governor of New Mexico and the Republican who is governor of Utah to join those seeking to revive the Western States Primary. An old brainstorm of former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt, that primary wasn't a big draw in 2000 and didn't even happen in 2004. But 2008, as Utah's Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. and New Mexico's Gov. Bill Richardson see it, is a good chance to try again. We agree. The next presidential election will be about as wide open as any in memory, and a good time for the relatively small states of Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona to get together to attract the candidates who will be scrapping for every vote. Together, those eight states have 44 electoral votes, 11 less than California has all by itself. But that's still more than Iowa's seven or New Hampshire's four, and thus arguably a better tune-up for the general election.
Some handicapping: For Democrats, this would obviously be good for Richardson and probably not for Hilary. For Republicans, this would be good for McCain and Romney, but probably not for Jeb or Condi. Therein may hang the tail. If the White House wants to stop McCain or Romney, will they try to derail a Western primary? And if they tried, could they?
Leo Brown | July 5, 2005 | Comment on This Post (6 so far) |
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Comments
Of course, Jeb and Condi are officially not thinking about it.
Frist - probably a wash.
Hagel - maybe a small plus.
Giuliani - hurts.
Allen - hurts.
Tancredo - thinks it helps, but he's gone by then anyway.
Santorum/Barber/Brownack - hurts.
And, of course, there's my favorite darkhorse: Dick Cheney. It helps him a lot.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Jul 5, 2005 12:11:17 PM
i don't understand how a western primary helps massachusetts-elite romney.
though i'm a left-coaster for life, i'm more excited about a she-president than a (real) cowboy. fortunately, i don't think even an early western state going for richardson would slow the hillary juggernaut.
Posted by: jami | Jul 5, 2005 7:32:21 PM
Here is Romney’s appeal. Mitt Romney is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, as was his father, George Romney, the moderate Republican Governor of Michigan. Mitt is also remembered in Utah as the man put the Salt Lake Winter Olympic Games back on track. His natural strength in a Western Primary would be the LDS or Mormon vote. Latter-day Saints make up 72% of Utah, 27% of Idaho, 10% of Wyoming, 7% of Nevada (Senator Reid is LDS), 5% of Arizona, 3% of Montana. See http://www.adherents.com/largecom/com_lds.html
In the Rocky Mountain West as a whole, Latter-day Saint and Catholic are the largest religious affiliations. See http://www.religionatlas.org/religion_region/ROCKYMOUNTAINWEST.htm
That alone doesn’t guarantee a win, but it gives him a leg up on the competition.
As for the Hilary juggernaut, time will tell. It is still early, and many things could happen. Bill’s health, her health, or the poll numbers could change everything. Governor Napolitano could be a good candidate without Hilary’s polarizing effect if the idea is a woman president. Or maybe Hilary gets the nomination and picks Richardson as VP. It is all too early to tell, but I am concerned that if Hilary is the nominee, we will see another replay of 2000 and 2004 with a similar result.
Posted by: Leo Brown | Jul 5, 2005 9:37:49 PM
We really need to stop thinking about primaries in the context of who it "might" help or hurt.
Personally I could care less if the process "helps" st. Hillary or St. McCain, or anyone else.
I'm more interested in western states, including California, having a little more say than just being an ATM machine or a major city stop for Presidentials.
Plus let's face it - St. Hillary is all hat and no cattle. Her idea of the "west" is wherever the rich people go vacation.
Posted by: Greg Dewar | Jul 6, 2005 11:06:22 AM
I agree that it would be good to discuss a more rational way to pick candidates in general. The current process is a strange patchwork at best.
I agree that all of the West should have a bigger voice in the process. Having a very early primary would be an important step.
But we also need to keep in mind that the drivers behind the current proposal are there because of particular candidates with ties to New Mexico and Utah.
Posted by: Leo Brown | Jul 6, 2005 4:04:49 PM
Here's an interesting op-ed piece by Dan Kemmis about a Western Regional Primary. Dan is one smart, savvy man. I'm still hoping he throws his hat in the ring for Montana's Jr. Senator seat.
Posted by: Bert Lowry | Jul 11, 2005 5:25:52 AM
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(and yes, we know that sometimes they're very, very wrong. Other times, they're right on.)
