Duke out, Dem In?
With Rep. Duke Cunningham falling down the stairs yesterday, it opens the door in that Republican haven of South of LA to a possible Dem insurgency. Linda Lorretta Sanchez was able to boot out Bob Dornan in a very Orange County district back in the 1990s, but since then, the Republicans down there have held on tight.
The DCCC is up to the challenge, especially since Duke has put the issue of congressional ethics squarely on the table. If Dems take back congress in 2006, I think it will be because of congressmen like Duke:
In Washington, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said the GOP is in for a fight. The party's national offices are unwilling to cede the seat to the Republicans and are ready to bankroll a fight.The party's likely standard bearer is Francine Busby, who lost to Cunningham in 2004, drawing about 37 percent of the vote. Busby has already declared her candidacy.
"We think we have a very strong chance to pick up a seat here," said campaign committee spokeswoman Adrienne Elrod. "We have a very strong candidate who has already put together a strong campaign, raising more than $100,000, with $64,000 of that raised in just the last two weeks."
Busby, a member of the Cardiff school board, issued a statement shortly after Cunningham's announcement calling for him to resign immediately rather than serve out the remainder of his term.
"If his ethical problems make it impossible for him to run a campaign, they also make it impossible for him to effectively represent the people of his district," Busby said in her statement.
UPDATE: Interesting description of the 50th District:
District 50 (30% D - 46% R) - Randy "Duke" Cunningham - MAP This San Diego County district includes the cities of Carlsbad, Escondido, Encinitas, and Del Mar. Predominantly Republican, it has a minority population of only 33.2% (18.8% Latino; 11.9% Asian, and; 2.5% African-American).
Emmett O'Connell | July 15, 2005 | Comment on This Post (5 so far) |
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Comments
Not to nitpick, but it was Linda Sanchez's elder sister Lorretta who defeated B-1 Bob.
Posted by: Jeremy Young | Jul 15, 2005 1:59:55 PM
Duke was beginning to craft a stupidity defense (“poor judgment”), but I suspect the GOP leadership took him aside and let him know how that would play in an election and how it would hurt the party nationally. But the investigations are not over. This could become an open seat before 2006.
CA-48 in Orange County will also be open.
Posted by: Leo Brown | Jul 15, 2005 2:26:37 PM
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20050716-9999-1mi16folks.html
Disappointment over Cunningham
Quotable:
"It's hard not to be cynical especially in San Diego County,"
"There's the pension board, the strippergate and then there's Cunningham.
"It's like, 'Wow, everybody's on the take.' "
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2005/07/15/news/top_stories/23_07_287_14_05.txt
Scramble to replace 'Duke' is on
Quotable:
"A safe Republican seat is a beautiful and luscious prize that just doesn't come up for grabs very often," said veteran political consultant Jack Orr of Oceanside. "Now, all those people who have labored in the vineyards are saying they want their due."
Posted by: Leo Brown | Jul 16, 2005 7:30:12 AM
Handicapping the race http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/northcounty/jenkins/20050718-9999-1m18jenkins.html
"...in the event Cunningham were to quit before February...the governor must set a date for a special election. Under these quirky rules, partisan primaries are eliminated. All candidates appear on the same ballot. Citizens vote for whomever they please. If any candidate wins a majority, he or she is the new representative in the House... [If Cunningham stays in office] the odds increase that a slew of ambitious Republicans will swarm into the 50th Congressional District, creating dangerous conditions on a crowded, muddy track that haven't been seen for a while.
Posted by: Leo Brown | Jul 18, 2005 2:44:49 PM
this is a district that dianne feinstein always wins and that liberal boxer came within 300 votes of last time. This is just the type of district where we need to elect democrats if we want to take back the house.
Posted by: ckjn | Aug 15, 2005 4:25:04 PM
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(and yes, we know that sometimes they're very, very wrong. Other times, they're right on.)
