Campaign 2006: Let's Look West
The Billings Gazette reports that Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., “leads trial matchups against potential Democratic opponents for the 2006 election.” A May 23-25 telephone survey of 625 likely Montana voters showed Burns leading state Auditor John Morrison “by a 49 to 34 percent margin, with 17 percent undecided.” Burns led Senate President Jon Tester “by a 50 to 26 percent margin, with 24 percent undecided.” He also led former Missoula Mayor and ex-House Speaker Daniel Kemmis by 53-23 percent, with the rest undecided.
Any long-time incumbent barely cracking 50% against relatively unknown competition is in some serious trouble. In other interesting data from the poll, the Billings Gazette's Allison Farrell writes,
Montana voters, by a 51 to 31 percent margin with the rest undecided, oppose President Bush's proposal to partially privatize Social Security, a new Gazette State Poll shows.
The poll results also found that Montana candidates for the U.S. Senate or House might suffer political consequences if they back Bush's plans. Bush visited Great Falls in February to pitch his plan to Montanans.
[...]
Montana voters are also less likely to vote a candidate for the U.S. House or the Senate who supports Bush's Social Security plan, the poll shows. Thirty-nine percent of voters said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush's plan, while 20 percent of voters said they would be more likely to vote a supporter of the president's plan.
Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., and Rep. Denny Rehberg, R-Mont., are both up for re-election in 2006. Burns said Friday he doesn't feel comfortable with the Bush plan, and said he's continuing to work with his colleagues on a solution to Social Security. Rehberg believes Social Security needs to be fixed, but as far as the private accounts he's not convinced, said Rehberg's press secretary Brad Keena on Friday.
Montana's Republicans are not the only ones in retreat these days. As Kevin Yamamura reports for The Sacramento Bee, trouble is brewing in the Golden state.
Product placement is common in Hollywood. The movie producer puts a certain brand on film and the company kicks in some cash.
So it's not difficult to understand why a citizen watchdog group cried foul last week when products made by some of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign contributors showed up in a political ad.
The set for a 30-second spot about Schwarzenegger's budget-control initiative resembles a cafeteria and features a Pepsi, a bottle of Arrowhead water, a Dr Pepper and a rack of potato chips.
All are manufactured by companies that have given money to Schwarzenegger political committees, according to the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights. It demanded last week he return nearly $300,000 in contributions.
With Schwarzenegger at 40% in the most recent polling, this news can't make the Schwarzenegger people too happy. Perhaps this will make Warren Beatty begin to think seriously about a run for Governor. I still tend to like Phil Angelides' chances.
Jonathan Singer | May 31, 2005 | Comment on This Post (4 so far) |
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Comments
It looks like whoever ends up running against Sen. Burns has a good shot. This could be an important test of the Western Strategy. If we can pick up this seat, it will demonstrate that the arid west is turning blue.
So what can we WesternDemocrat.com people do to help? We can send money to the winner of the Democratic primary. We can check out Frontier PAC. They're "going after" Sen. Burns with radio ads. But they need your contributions (and ideas) to be successful.
We know that the West is not as dyed-in-the-wool Republican as the Presidential numbers make it seem. If we can keep winning, the rest of the Democratic party will notice too.
Posted by: Bert Lowry | Jun 1, 2005 6:33:53 AM
You don't have to wait until after the primary - if you find a candidate who you think has the best chance of forwarding your agenda, and more so - of winning the seat, pony up before the primaries. That money gets used to build the very same organization that'll take on the Republican come next fall.
Posted by: Brew | Jun 1, 2005 3:55:17 PM
If Dan Kemmis decides to run, I'll send him some money. He's great. I don't know that much about the other potential candidates. All other things being equal, I'd rather my money was used to take on Conrad Burns, not other Democrats.
Posted by: Bert Lowry | Jun 1, 2005 5:03:53 PM
Conrad Burns might be in deeper trouble than the GOP or the Montana Republicans would like. The recent airings of the commercial exposing the relationship between Conrad Burns and Jack Abramoff is about to blow up in Burns' face:
The Washington Post is reporting that:
"Federal prosecutors are seeking bank fraud charges against lobbyist Jack Abramoff, a key figure in investigations involving House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, The Associated Press learned Thursday.
The charges stem from the 2000 purchase by Abramoff and his partners of SunCruz Casinos and the alleged use of a fake wire transfer to defraud two lenders out of some $60 million to finance the deal, according to a federal law enforcement official.
A grand jury in Fort Lauderdale was expected to return an indictment against Abramoff and an associate, New York businessman Adam Kidan, 36, as early as Thursday, federal law enforcement sources said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because the grand jury indictment had not been unsealed and arrests were still pending."
Posted by: cbrady | Aug 11, 2005 11:12:52 AM
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(and yes, we know that sometimes they're very, very wrong. Other times, they're right on.)
