2006 Senate Roundups in the West Arizona, California, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Senators, Utah, Washington, Wyoming

Stephen Yellin does a good job of rounding up all the 2006 Senate Races this week. The West is a major part of where the 2006 Senate races are going to be fought, this will be a good testing ground for all the stuff we've been saying about Schweitzer and the Salizars. If we do well in the West, and I think we will if we emualate how we suceeded in 2002 and 2004, this next class of Western Senators will be a powerful voice for the party to look West in 2008 and beyond.

According the Yellin, though, the Rs have the advantage right now, 5 seats to 3. I think we have a chance to get wins in Arizona, Montana, Nevada and maybe even Wyoming (if Thomas retires and Sullivan runs). If we just pull off two of those states, we take the region, 5 to 3.

From Yellin Report:

ARIZONA-Despite going for President Bush by a decent margin (54-45) in 2004, Arizona remains a possible pickup for the Democrats in 2006, in its Senate race. However, for this to occur it will likely depend on the movements of Republican Senator Jon Kyl. Kyl, a two-term conservative who was elected in the GOP wave of 1994 (he succeeded Democrat Dennis DeConcini) signed onto a term-limits agreement during his first run, and that pledge would be expiring in 2006. As a result, Kyl has two choices-to either break his pledge (which admittedly doesn’t matter much anymore) and run again, or keep the pledge and retire. Being only 59, my guess is that Kyl will choose to stay and run again. Who would the Democrats run against him, then? The likeliest Democrat is the State Chairman, Jim Pederson. Pederson, a wealthy realtor, led a successful initiative that made Arizona a non-partisan redistricting zone in 2000, and then became Chairman of the State Democrats in 2001. He generally has had a successful record, helping to elect Janet Napolitano as Governor in 2002 along with current AG Terry Goddard. Pederson has been sending strong signals that he will leave the Chairmanship and run against Kyl, in what could become a competitive race. Kyl does have the power of incumbency, but he’s the junior Senator to John McCain, so his name ID and popularity is somewhat in question. Kyl has not had a competitive race since 1994-in 2000 he was unopposed by the Democrats, and so his campaign skills may be a little rusty as well. Should Kyl retire, the seat will truly be competitive, and you can expect both sides to have competitive primaries. Of course, that will depend on Kyl retiring, and for now I don’t see that happening. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

CALIFORNIA-Senator Dianne Feinstein is up for reelection in 2006, and despite her age (she’ll be 73 in 2006) she’s raring to go for another term. A popular moderate in a moderate-to-liberal state (it gave Kerry a double-digit win), “DiFi” appears to be a lock for reelection. Considering the drubbing that Barbara Boxer gave Bill Jones in 2004, after all the hype about Boxer being in trouble from the NRSC, I don’t think the GOP will be willing to try it against the much more moderate Feinstein. Should Feinstein change her mind and retire, expect the Democrats and the Republicans to have competitive primaries; with the Democrats still having the edge in this blue state (unless Arnold Schwarzenegger decides that he wants to become “The Senatator”). SAFE DEMOCRATIC

HAWAII-With Senator Dan Akaka running for reelection, game-set-match for the Democrats. Akaka is an icon in Hawaii right alongside his colleague, Dan Inoyue, and can expect minimal opposition in 2006. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

MONTANTA-Along with Colorado, Montana saw a Democratic tide in the state in 2004. Not only did Democrats take the Governorship, they took the State Senate and forced a tie in the State House (before the GOP allied themselves to a moderate Democrat to prevent a fully Democratic committee list) under the leadership of the able new Governor, Brian Schweitzer. Now, the resurgent Montana Democrats are planning on taking out Senator Conrad Burns. Burns narrowly survived Schweitzer’s superb campaign in 2000 (he won with just 50%), and while his popularity is somewhat stronger than usual for a “vulnerable” incumbent, his age and lack of campaign activity so far could indicate that A) He’s considering joining a lobbying firm, as has been rumored, or B)He’s not really up to another challenge, and will retire. Or, it could mean he’s running again, but hasn’t geared up yet, which isn’t good for his hopes either. Democrats have two strong potential candidates, in Attorney General Mike McGrath and State Senate President John Tester. Both are popular statewide figures who won big in 2004, and have nothing to lose by running against Burns. Due to the fact that neither has declared their candidacy, however, we’ll leave Burns’ race as LEANS REPUBLICAN-for now.

NEVADA-While Senator John Ensign, like Nelson is a first-termed from the West, that’s about all they have in common. Ensign is a popular Senator from a swing state that voted narrowly for Bush, and as a result will probably avoid a major challenge in 2006. With State Senator Dina Titus likely to run for Governor, the Democrats will concentrate on that race instead, leaving Ensign largely in the clear. Should a strong challenge develop, we’ll change our ratings here, but currently it’s SAFE REPUBLICAN.

NEW MEXICO-With popular Senator Jeff Bingaman up for reelection, the question originally asked was whether he would run again. Now, it’s clear that the 4-term Democrat wants another term, and the new question is what sacrificial lamb the GOP will throw at him. Like Ensign, Bingaman could be somewhat vulnerable to a strong challenger, but I don’t believe either case will occur. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

UTAH- Senator Orrin Hatch is as safe as can be, and I don’t see any signs of him retiring, either. However, a curious report has wealthy medicine CEO Fred Lampropulous, who ran for Governor in the 2004 GOP primary, considering a primary challenge against Hatch, on the grounds that Hatch has “forgotten his roots”. Should that happen, we’ll take another look here, but this seat is SAFE REPUBLICAN.

WASHINGTON STATE-With Senator Maria Cantwell running for reelection, the GOP would love nothing more than to beat her. They also think they have the perfect candidate in State Senator Dino Rossi, who is still contesting a narrowly lost (129 votes!) bid for Governor to Democrat Christine Gregoire. The problem with that line of thinking (that voter anger will propel Rossi into the Senate) is two-fold: 1) If Rossi gets his way an a re-vote is held, he would have to abandon any Senate run, and 2) If Rossi gives up on the Governorship and runs for Senate, he’ll look as if he was contesting the Governorship for ambition only, and therefore develop a “sore loser” persona. In addition, as Stu Rothenberg wrote recently, a Senate race is far different than a Governor’s race, in terms of issues to discuss and campaigns to wage. Rossi’s mantra is “change”, as Rothenberg states, and to run as a candidate of “change” for the Senate is to be in favor of changing the GOP government in Washington. Oops, there goes THAT idea! As a result, I expect that Rossi won’t run for Senate in 2006, leaving the GOP without a top-tier candidate. While the GOP will not doubt find a decent candidate, Cantwell remains roughly as popular as her colleague, Patty Murray, and as such will likely win reelection. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

WYOMING- This being Wyoming, Senator Craig Thomas is a lock for reelection. However, rumor has it that the 73-year old moderate is considering retirement. While the GOP has no shortage of good candidates in that event, Democrat Dave Freudenthal is running for reelection as Governor, and that might force the GOP to split their resources (and candidates) to both attack and defend. As for the Democrats, their best candidate for an open race would be ex-Governor Mike Sullivan, who lost a bid for the Senate to Thomas in 1994 (they were neck-and-neck in polling before the GOP tide hit on Election Day). Sullivan remains a well-known and popular figure in Wyoming politics, and remains young enough (he’s 57 currently) to run a competitive race. Should Thomas retire, the dynamics of this race would greatly change, but for now, SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Emmett O'Connell | January 18, 2005 | Comment on This Post (3 so far) Permalink: 2006 Senate Roundups in the West Arizona, California, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Senators, Utah, Washington, Wyoming

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