Think Western Exurbs are for Republicans?
No, Trix are not for kids, and the rapidly urbanizing West, especially exurbs can be a place for Dems to flourish.
From AFP:
The "exurbs" have become a key electoral factor in states such as Ohio and Colorado, as they have overwhelmingly become support bases for Republican presidential candidates over the past two decades.But Jefferson County, like similar "exurbs" across the country, could change its colours and support Democratic candidate John Kerry and not Republican President George W. Bush in Tuesday's election, Democrats say.
"Jefferson County could be a big surprise in these elections," said Steve Haro, communications director for the Colorado Democratic Party.
"There has been a big urbanistic change, more minorities are spreading out to the rural fringes of the city of the region," he said.
This story was from Oct. 31, apparently some kind of pre-election spinning by Dems to fight the apparent success Republicans have had in the exburbs. Interesting what actually happened, though.
Kerry lost in Jefferson County, pretty handedly, 52 to 46 percent. But, Ken Salazar won over Pete Coors, 51 to 48, and Congressman Mark Udall beat the Republican 58 to 40 percent. In the other two house races, Republicans were favored.
Also, two of the three state senate seats voted on in Jefferson County went to Dems, but ten state house races, Jefferson County voters like six Republicans and four Democrats.
So, it’s a pretty mixed bag in Jefferson County, but not an entire loss.
Emmett O'Connell | November 30, 2004 | Comment on This Post (5 so far) |
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Comments
Losing 52-to-46 is a clear defeat, but hardly an indication that Jefferson Co is a GOP stronghold. Get 4% of the electorate to vote Democratic, and voila, you've reversed the outcome.
I also question the idea that only minorities vote Democratic. Get the message, the marketing, and the goals right, and you'll see white folks going Dem once again.
-AG
Posted by: AlphaGeek | Nov 30, 2004 2:19:06 PM
I wouldn't call Jeffco "exurbia." Most of the population lives in big suburbs close in to Denver, like Lakewood and Arvada. In fact, Lakewood is the quintessential inner-ring suburb that should be expected to trend Democrat. There are some more exurban type communities in the mountain part of the county, but that's a small part of the population.
For real "exurban" numbers, I would look to Weld, Douglas and Elbert Counties, which went much more heavily to Bush.
Posted by: Colorado Luis | Dec 1, 2004 7:50:12 AM
Yes, Douglas County, CO is exurbia and went for Bush with the same margin as in 2000. But down-ticket from there, things improved dramatically. For Congress Joanna Conti moved close to the same margin as in the suburban parts of her district, 18 points better than the 2000 race. Penny Burley's margin for state house was 28 points better than the last state house race waged in Castle Rock. Douglas is the wealthiest county in the state, but less evangelical than Boulder. So there's only one of those strikes against us. The Democratic Party clearly needs a better economic message for us to win here, but it's the same economic message that would play well in the rest of the west.
Posted by: pdt | Dec 2, 2004 4:23:17 PM
What the dems should really be preparing for in the exurbs is a socially liberal and fiscally conservative demographic. Many of the people moving into the west are doing so for quality of life issues and the chance to carve out their own little ranchette. Dems can tap into this, especially in the more conservative states, by representing the "non-extreme" party. Many of the recent arrivals are from more populous areas, and whether their republican or democrat, they still need to come to terms with such a conservative republican party. Being from Montana, I wouldn't hesitate to say that the recent campaign by the dems did just this. It would be interesting to look at the numbers.
Posted by: derf johnson | Dec 5, 2004 2:39:06 PM
Dems in Colo also deal with the fact that statewide nearly 1/4 of voters are registered unaffiliated, at least in El Paso County that's the case. And I believe many of those folks lean to Democratic ideals and candidates. It would help the state Dem party here a lot to reach out and try to bring them in.
As with all the country it would help the Dems here a whole lot to really build a strong and ongoing infrastucture, from the precinct to the state level!
Then you could reallistically talk about a strong, infuential Western Dem party!
Your web site is a terrific start in that direction.
Thanks for having it here. Happy Holidays
gr Co Springs, Co
Posted by: greichel | Dec 22, 2004 7:47:17 PM
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(and yes, we know that sometimes they're very, very wrong. Other times, they're right on.)
