Part 1 of my homebrewed theory: But, you're from that hippy enclave of Olympia, how can you talk about this? The Big Strategy, Urban/Rural Divide, Washington

Maybe its one of those "only Nixon can go the China" things, but I think its entireable plausible that someone from the "hippest town in the West," a town not known internationally for its political centrism, can argue that moderate and conservative Democrats from the West will save our party.

Washington State, other than being west of the -102 degrees longitude, does not have much in common with the Mountain West, which is the geographic crux of my thesis.

California, Oregon and Washington have been solidly Dem in Presidential politics for several cycles and seem to be staying that way for the foreseeable future. In Washington, though, you could delete three counties from that equation and Washington would look surprisingly like Idaho. King, Pierce and Snohomish counties are the big three in Washington politics, if you win there, you win the state. They also hold the distinction of being three of the most Dem counties in the state.

Dino Rossi, a seemingly centrist Republican, actually carried Pierce and Snohomish counties and was competitive in King. Therefore he is scaring the hell out of Chris Gregoire. Eastern Washington, a large rural swath of agricultural towns and small cities, is understandably and solidly Republican.

The Washington coast, from the hippy enclave of Port Townsend around to Forks, Grays Harbor and all the way to the Columbia River, is strangely Democratic. The only Republican state representative (or Senator for that matter) from Port Townsend to Ilwaco, the entire Washington coast, almost lost in the general election and was out polled by his challenger in the primary. The county commissions of Clallam, Jefferson Grays Harbor and Pacific counties are all solidly Democratic.

Pacific and Grays Harbor were the site of our own "sage-brush" rebellion four years ago against a planned update of the state's Shoreline Management Act. The state Republican Party last year responded with a "Contract With Rural Washington" that reads like a laundry list of pro-economic development, anti-environmental protection positions. The entire Washington coast, with the entire rural Northwest, has been a battle ground between urban environmentalists, federal regulators, the timber industry and logging dependent communities.

Coastal Washington is much more like Eastern Washington, and I would imagine New Mexico and even Wyoming, than it is like nearby Olympia (where I am from) and Seattle (the heart of Democratic Party politics in Washington). If there ever was a time for the Republican Party in Washington to start dominating coastal politics, it would have been in the last 20 years.

But, why that hasn't happened?The reasons why are a lesson of how the Democrat Party can become competitive, and in some places dominant, in the West. This can eventually transition to increased influence in the national party, which will lead to more Democrats being elected President.

The simplest reason why Democrats remain competitive on the coast is that a Democrat from Aberdeen is very different from a Democrat from Seattle.

In Part 2, I'll start laying down specifics regarding how that actually works.

Emmett O'Connell | November 14, 2004 | Comment on This Post (2 so far) Permalink: Part 1 of my homebrewed theory: But, you're from that hippy enclave of Olympia, how can you talk about this? The Big Strategy, Urban/Rural Divide, Washington

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